I recalculated the time for post 1.0.5 It is still pretty inaccurate, cause we don’t know exact droprates and can only guess, but that shouldn’t make your worry, cause I’ve taken the most optimistic numbers, and in real farming time will either fit mine, or will be bigger.
I also updated the formula, making it more transparent and calculating a range, instead of a fixed number. You can play with it and put your own winrate in to see how much farming will take exactly for you. And I updated the explanation, because the original one, let’s face it, was rather bad and overly complicated.
So summing up, getting all the red items will take 3300 to 5000 hours. You can see why below.
First of all, we don’t know the exact droprates. There is data-mined droprates and droprates that come from hackers opening thousands of chests. I personally trust empirical data more, because it comes from 2 sources and can only be fault, if FS intentionally lowered droprates for cheaters, while data mined numbers come from client data, although all the rolls happen at FS servers.
But we can just compare them to see which one is false.
The data mined numbers are 16.7% and 10.1% red drop chance for legend emperor’s and general’s chest respectively. Statistical number is only for emperor’s, it’s about 4.5%, but we will just assume general’s to be 3%.
If you play ideally, no disconnects, 100% winrate always with 5 books and your runs take 30 minutes on average, you are going to get 0.26 red items per hour for data-mined droprate and 0.0736 red items per hour for empirical droprate, which is one item per 3h 50m and per 13h 30min hours respectively.
That is pre 1.0.5 data, so we can be pretty confident, that 3h 50m is a wrong number. If it were true, everyone would have tons of red items already. So it’s 13.5 hours.
The problem is the 1.0.5 patch. The droprates have been increased and we don’t know how much. But judging by player reviews, they seem to be increased by about 100%-200%.
Let’s take the 200% number. It results in a 0.22 reds per hour, or 4.5 hours of IDEAL farming for 1 red item, which is not that bad it looks like. Well, let’s check that out.
The first problem that weapons drop only 45% of the time, 55% of the time we get jewelry (again statistical data). Even if we consider 1 character, then on average they have 11 different weapons and 3 different jewelries. So even if we gear one and only one person, we are going to get a lot of jewelry, much more than we need.
So jewelry is irrelevant and we should only count weapons per hour. 4.5 / 0.45 = 10 hours per one red weapon. Still looks ok.
But that’s until you start getting duplicates. With the help of rocket science math and reptilian technologies, I calculated how much items you gonna need on average compared to the basic pool. It’s 3 times more. The explanation lies here (2nd page of original spreadsheet).
So there is 54 weapons in total, and we need to roll 162 weapons on average to get them all. Or 360 red items in total. 1620 hours of IDEAL farming to get all red items.
Why am I so obsessed with time it takes to get all red items? Well, because it is the only viable metric. Since the drops are completely random, getting a particular item might take 1 hour, 100 hours or 1k hours. It all depends on luck. There is no guarantee you will get a particular item you want at all to be fair. Yes, you will get a bunch of other items, but when it comes to one particular one, you have to pray to RNGesus. And since you have already faced the re-roll system, you must understand that pretty well. Sometimes you get the properties you need 1st try, sometimes you waste all your dust and still don’t get them.
But let’s get back to our numbers. So 1620 hours of ideal farming. But what’s your winrate, guys? Is it really 100%? I think it is not. So let’s take it into account.
So how do you take your winrate into account? Well, evaluate your winrate. Let’s say it is 30%. Substitute your winrate from 100%, in our example the result is 70%. Now divide it by 2. It is gonna be 35%. Now divide the result by your winrate, multiply it by 100% and add 100%. 35/30 = 1.17 1.17*100% = 117% 117% + 100% = 217%. This your multiplier for 1620 hours. In case of a 30% winrate that’s 3515 hours to get all red weapons.
Why is it so hard and where does the formula come from? Well, from the fact that a 50% winrate doesn’t mean you are going to spend twice as much time farming loot. If a mission lasts 30 minutes, when you fail it, you are going to be 15 minutes into the mission on average. So a loss only wastes half of a run time. That’s why you have to divide it by 2.
But yet again, it’s an optimistic number, that doesn’t take disconnects, bugs, lost books, crafting time, chit-chatting and tea breaks into account. But these things vary so much from player to player, that there is no way to make a precise calculation. To make sure you took them into account, you might just not divide the difference by 2. The result is going to be a little pessimistic, but should be a bit closer to the actual number. Therefore for a 30% winrate the result is going to be (70%/30%*100%+100%)*1620 = 5400 hours. And an average farming time should fall into 3515-5400 hours range, being closer to the right side.
You might also want to make adjustments to the average mission time, because 30 mins does not fit everyone. That’s should be very easy, don’t think I even have to explain that.
And there is still one thing I want to mention yet again. The drops are COMPLETELY random. We can calculate an average farming time, but the actual farming time depends purely on your luck. It might be 2 times lower, it might be 2 times higher. Whatever it is, you have no choice but to accept it.
That’s all guys. Sorry for bad explanation the first time. Hope this one is more clear.
Original post (left here for history)
All the data and all the explanations are given in the table. In short, it would take about 4100 hours for a very good player to get all red items in a best-case scenario, and 2-3 times more (8200-12300) hours for an average player. Yes, there is a worst-case scenario. The exact red items droprates are unknown, but there are 2 numbers: one number comes from data mining, another from a cheater opening 3k chests. The optimistic number is based on the data-mined value. The statistical value is about 3 times worse, and the evaluated farm time is 14670 for top players, and 29340-44010 hours for average ones. I don’t know which number is correct, it can be any of them.
Also after playing for some time and after reading the forum, most noticeably this topic, I am not sure any more that 2-3 times is a realistic multiplier. It might be 5, 10 or even 20 (5 or 6 seems more accurate). But using a multiplier of 3 we are guaranteed to not exceed the actual grind time. And a big multiplier is somewhat irrelevant, since then Champion becomes a better alternative.
One more important thing: these are average numbers. They might differ for each individual player from 2k hours to 8k hours (compared to 4k), and this deviation is based purely on luck, a player can not affect it in any way.
In 1.0.5 the devs said to DRASTICALLY increase droprates for red items, but without the actual numbers this data is worthless. “Drastically” could mean anything from a 5% increase to a 500% increase. Btw even a 500% increase is not enough, especially for bad numbers.
Now let me explain the reasoning behind writing this post. After playing for 200 hundred hours and realizing, that getting red items will take me forever, I dropped the game. After patch 1.0.5 I came back, hoping the problem to be fixed, but it turned out to still persist. So I calculated the time it would take me to get all the loot, and I was shocked. And I decided to share it with you guys, also I wrote my “suggestions”, on how to fix this grindfest, though I think of them more like of must-have immediate changes, since according to recent SteamCharts data people are leaving Vermintide 2, and leaving fast. And I think this is the main reason. You can check my thoughts on necessary changes here.
And here is a repeat link to the table. The formulas are working, you can play with the numbers: maybe you have your own vision on them, maybe your wanna change them to fit your stats or maybe you just want to check if I messed up the numbers, which is a good thing to do.
Let’s make a statistical verification of the theoretical calculations, btw you can do it too. So there is 54 weapons. Jewelry doesn’t matter at all, since you get plenty of it. Considering duplicates, I need to roll 3 times the weapon pool (the reasoning can be found in the second page of the spreadsheet), which means I need to roll 162 weapons on average. I have 322 hours in the game. Let’s say 100 hours were spent leveling up the characters, which means I have 222 hours of active playing. During that time I rolled 4 red weapons, so I get 1 red weapon per 222 / 4 = 55.5 hours. Then I need 55.5 * 162 = 8991 hours on average to get all red items. Considering that I play Legend and Champion 50/50, the resultant number would be about 1/3 lower, if I played exclusively Legend, which results in 5994 hours.
The deviation is horrible on such a low sample, but the actual value should fall into about x3 /3 interval. The most important thing is that the order of magnitude fits, which means that theoretical calculations are likely correct, at least not that far from the truth.
End of original post (which is left here for lulz)