[Crafting] Never tell me the odds! Or you know what...?

[Lt.DavinFelth]

+++The foolish man puts his trust in luck, the wise man puts his trust in the Emperor. +++

Major errors found, I’m sorry. (Currently fixed).
Version for current (Pre-Patch12) system (calculation errors removed):

[Crafting] Never tell me the odds! Or you know what...?

Flawless found error in my calculations, so below new version: Now they look a bit better thanks to removing T1 from the equation and increasing probability by 2nd slots which I have not taken into account (on account of being lazy / scatterbrained / mad). It’s for current (Prepatch #12) system btw. Melee: [Final1] Ranged: [image]

Fellow Members of Inquisitorial Warband: Acolytes and Rejects,

I’ve decided to actually check probabilities of getting what we want.
(I don’t care if you, yes you in the back - don’t want 550 weapon. Stow it!).
I would like to remind you that I’ve made a lot of assumptions so final probabilities can vary but I think they’ll be even more depressing (someone please confirm or correct me on number of accessible perks).

Anyway to the point:
First we need number of all possible permutations of a 1 weapon (I mean all possible combinations of modifiers for a weapon) for a 30 level Operative.
I must admit I found my education to be lacking in that regard so instead of mathematical model I’ve decided to brute-force solution with Python:

def count_permutations():
valid_permutations = 0

# Iterate through all possible combinations of 5 values ranging from 1 to 80
for val1 in range(1, 81):
    for val2 in range(1, 81):
        for val3 in range(1, 81):
            for val4 in range(1, 81):
                for val5 in range(1, 81):
                    current_sum = val1 + val2 + val3 + val4 + val5
                    
                    # Check if the sum is between 300 and 380
                    if 300 <= current_sum <= 380:
                        valid_permutations += 1

return valid_permutations

result = count_permutations()
print(“Number of Valid Permutations:”, result)

Number of Valid Permutations: 96252492

Huh… 96 million combinations, eh?
Ok, how many are giving us 380 rating gray weapon?

def count_combinations_for_sum(target_sum):
valid_combinations = 0

# Iterate through all possible combinations of 5 values ranging from 1 to 80
for val1 in range(1, 81):
    for val2 in range(1, 81):
        for val3 in range(1, 81):
            for val4 in range(1, 81):
                for val5 in range(1, 81):
                    current_sum = val1 + val2 + val3 + val4 + val5
                    
                    # Check if the sum is equal to the target sum
                    if current_sum == target_sum:
                        valid_combinations += 1

return valid_combinations

target_sum = 380
result = count_combinations_for_sum(target_sum)
print(“Number of Combinations with Sum 380:”, result)

Number of Combinations with Sum 380: 10626

Just over 10k? I would like to remind you, a Bolter with 80% everything and 60% Damage is not a good roll but it’s still included in that number.

All possible combinations for a Perk 1 (or 2 - same Feth)

1. 4 levels * 17 = 68 (Melee) or 4 levels * 16 = 64 (Ranged)
2. What above but we subtract one from a pool

All possible combinations for a Blessing 1 (or 2 - same Feth, also depends on a weapon):

1. In case of highest probability (Plasma Gun - 4, 4, 5, 4 in total 19) or lowest (Latrine Shovel 10 for all blessing levels - total 40)
2. Second blessing, what above but we subtract one from a pool

So! Getting any weapon with rating 380 base chance is around 0,00110397.
That is 0,011% (one hundredth of a percent)
Not all of those are “happy” variations but for a sake of simplicity we will assume they are.

Probability of Emperor’s Gift giving us 550 weapon?
= 10626 / 96252492 x [Fixed Mistake] ((1-(17/19)x(17/18))
(amount of valid Blessings - let’s say there are just two we are interested in for Plasma Gun)
(We are removing probability of perks because we will exchange them anyway - they have bigger pools to kark us over, so let’s try to minimize risks)

This is a probability for a best case scenario:
0,00001710832898, so 1: 58 451
(far from previously stated 1,5 mln I’M VERY SORRY, ABOUT IT)

Now let’s do worst one for Latrine shovel
0,00000820901823, so 121 817
(Also far away from previous 7 mln I’M SORRY)

Emperor’s gift does not give us specific weapon, so everything above need to be multiplied by 1/41 (All 41 veteran weapons)

Let’s see again… 2 396 494 combinations for a Plasma gun.

And Shovel?
4 994 507 combinations.
That can’t be right… and it wasn’t. Now it is.

I’m not going to even consider adjusting calculations above with “weights” or entertain possibility for base rating numbers to be different than integers. Morale is already low.

On the bright side: We have a lot of options to improve our chances: Melk, Brunt, Emperor Gifts, there are usually more than just 2 viable blessings for a weapon… but point remains:
“Welcome to gambling hell purgatory”.

+++ End of Transmission +++

[Keln]

Praise OmniMathia

[spr4wler]

Ah, one looked into the abyss of probability in this game. May his sanity stay strong

[Armchair]

In other news, Fatshark is searching for a heretek who engaged in blasphemous research instead of dutifully performing the Rites of Grinding.

[BFCInsomnia]

I gotta love that the numbers are just abysmal, even worse than droprates of the rarest items you’d see in path of exile and the like, and they are still LOWballed.

Let me make this crystal clear to every single that thinks that any of this is fine: the 1:600’000 odds are still TOO HIGH

Newsflash to any FS investor: knowing that I am more likely to be hit by lightning, if I goddamn tried for that for an entire YEAR, than to actually get an item I’d like to get, does, in fact, NOT make me want to play the game more.

It does the opposite.

#BreakTheLocks

[ggg]

poor python interpreter, running all these loops

[Lt.DavinFelth]

Oh and just in case anyone from EU is wondering (and plays EUROJACKPOT) probability of winning 5+2 (5 out of 50 numbers + 2 from 12) is 1 : 139 838 159.
Compare with values above.

For a lot of weapons you have worst odds at getting perfect 550 from Emperors gift EXCLUDING PERKS than winning 10 mln EUR (minimal main prize).
Let that sink in.

Nope, Darktide have higher odds of getting perfect weapon from Emperors Gift. Sorry.

@ggg Don’t scare me like that, before you’ve added “running all these loops”, I thought I’ve made value error.

[brosgw]

I think force sword, last I checked, has the highest blessing pool. They should really bring some of the weapons into more alignment or have means of getting different blessings when there’s like 13 types.

[Lt.DavinFelth]

If Zealots, Ogryns and Psykers can give me best and worst weapons in terms of amount of blessings in their propable Arsenal, we can see which class have smallest odds to get 550 gear.

[Dexta]

But muh holy design intent?

All jokes aside, Fatshark is as flexible with their systems as the Adeptus Mechanicus.

[Argonaut14]

So you’re telling me that I’ve got more chance of being killed by a falling coconut than actually getting close to a decent weapon?

Shitting hell.

I can remember when 4% chance of a hat from a chest in VT2 was considered an outrageously offensively low drop rate.

[Crayvun]

Glorious! Praise the great equation!

(So what you’re saying is, I should give up and find something better to do?)

[Dagless]

like you said you made alot of assumptions, i think this is really missing whatever weighting and percentage based chances Fatsharks math is working on.

while i think getting a 550 is still extremely unlikely it could be more or less likely than your prediciton

and i know you said “if you don’t want a 550 stow it” having a 550 isn’t a major issue in this game and we all know it. sure you might really really want one but that’s a you problem not necessarily an “issue”

[Dagless]

no you have an extremely high chance of getting a decent weapon even a high chance of an excellent one.

A statistically perfect one though? sure.

[Argonaut14]

But what about getting clocked on the head by a coconut?

I think it might be fair to say I live in the UK

[BensonWinifred]

I have 1068 hours and have only:
(1) 550; a BBIII on Ogryn
(1) 549 vraks VII on psyker…
(1) 547 mk V Ripper
(1) 544 Illisi
(1) 544 deimos
(1) 544 obsurus
(1) 541 purgatus

and so many in the ~ 530 range in different levels of lock hell it’s ridiculous

been holding onto so many in hopes someday locks would be removed; perfect 380’s with terrible TIER blessings & perks but apparently they are worthless

if they at least reset all the current locks, I would be a little more open about this but to just change it and oh well to you and all your 380’s that are bricked

[Lt.DavinFelth]

Sure, that’s my problem. And countless others who already left.
When you’ll be alone on Tertium have fun, because it was just “our problem”.

Oh wait… Ever heard phrase “False advertising”? If not, here is a hint:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A02005L0029-20220528

And it’s a bare minimum in terms of law in EU. I’m not going to waste my time or resources to check how it looks like on Member State level.
I would like to direct your attention to Articles 5, 6 and 7.

@Fatshark_Hedge

We have learned a lot from our previous choices and gameplay surrounding crafting offered within the Vermintide series. For Darktide we wanted to take those lessons to expand and improve in such a way that crafting would become a central pillar of player progression, while giving more impact and agency to you, the player in your preferred playstyle.

The nature of randomization and repetitive actions sometimes seen within crafting is something that we are steering to avoid in the crafting system within Darktide. Meaningful choices will be made with strategy and goals behind them, as you set your eyes upon that perfect combination of melee and ranged weapons for your class.

I bought this game based on, among others factors, Dev diaries and love for 40k franchise. Where is more meaningful crafting system? Where is “giving more impact and agency to you, the player in your preferred playstyle.”?

I’ve played since beta. Crafting was non-existent back then. It took 1,5 months to implement it in it’s poor form and 2 more for Quality of Life improvements, which have not increased my chances or gave me freedom to build a preferred weapon for my playstyle. Where are the attachments? Where is campaign? I’ve sold, sacrificed and bricked countless weapons and still can’t have what I need for specific build. 1020 missions, 1300 hours of grinding and shop camping and what I can show for it?

Multiple weapons with “good enough” stats, which will get the job done, but still are not precise what I want for builds I wish I’ve had.

I bought this game and waited 8 months to see improvements. I don’t have patience anymore and after calculations above I am absolutely LIVID.

If I’m wrong I want to see mathematical model for probability for specific weapon that is used in the game with specific perks even if imperfect. “I think” will not cut it.

[Headhunter]

I would bother arguing with that guy. From his post history of childish style of writing and insulting people, it is someone who is probably a kid.

[Ralendil]

Your stats are not good.
Especially cause you don’t consider that the odds to get an higher blessing tier are increasing with the quality of the weapon.
A 380 weapon has more chances to see a T4 blessing when consecrating (and especially to orange).

You should calculate the odds to get the blessing combo you want… and they are really correct. Excepted force sword that has too many blessings.

[Dagless]

me or him?