Armoury Shop Chances: A Sad Story of RNG

Warhammer 40,000: Darktide General Discussion
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Dataset: 30 resets
Range 360-369

  • Specific weapon, no mandatory perks or perk rating: 0,72%
  • Specific weapon, specific perk, no mandatory rating: 0,028%
  • Specific weapon, specific perk, perk rating 25: 0,0031%

Range 370-379

  • Specific weapon, no mandatory perks or perk rating: 0,18%
  • Specific weapon, specific perk, no mandatory rating: 0,007%
  • Specific weapon, specific perk, perk rating 25: 0,00078%

Range 380: 32 resets and it finally showed up!

  • Specific Weapon/no mandatory Perk and Rating: 0.0819%
  • Specific Weapon & Perk, no mandatory Rating: 0.0033%
  • Specific Weapon, Perk & Perk Rating 25: 0.0004%

With each 10 increment of resets, the current dataset will be saved at the bottom of this post and the new set will be represented in the top.

I have begun tracking weapons, their quality, perks and blessing and their associated ratings, because I want to bring to light just how grotesque the current system is and while I am only 18 resets in, I plan to hit 100 by next Sunday.

This project started out as a way to determine exactly how low the chances of a perfect weapon appearing on the shop are (considering next weeks crafting update). However, it has morphed into a project highlighting the absurd gear progression - or lack thereof after 360 gear.
I know there are naysayers and people that believe they aren’t necessary, but it’s not a matter of necessary… Veteran weapons in Vermintide wasn’t necessary - but man were they a joy to get and not this absurdly rare and we got to modify them exactly how we wanted to (although, with a wee bit of RNG).

Below is a link to the spreadsheet.

Armoury Spreadsheet - Google Sheets

If you’re interested in actual percentage chance (note that they are currently not very reliable) this is how you calculate them:

Note: That the method below specifically leaves out the chance that said weapon is a green or blue, so the chance of a weapon occuring with perks are in fact… much lower than reflected in-game.

((StoreSlots/TotalClassWeapons))x(ItemRangePercentage/100)x(PerkRatingPercentage/100)x(1/TotalPerks)x4x100

Store Slots: 10 (2 are always reserved for curios)
Total Class Weapons: Class Dependent
Item Range Percentage: 360-369, 370-379 or 380 values
Perk Rating Percentage: Perk Rating Percentage Values
Total Perks: 20
*4 includes: Store & Crafting Chances assuming crafting have a similar spread of perk chances.

An example would be:
((10/37)/100)x(1.11/100)x(9.72/100)x(1/20)x4x100

  • 0,0069984% for a 360-369 & 370-379 weapon

I can only hope that the Devs realize just how much worse they have made RNG which is completely and entirely opposite of their intentions for the game. They wanted to reduce the RNG as much as possible and let us have more player agency.
Please reconsider this system, let us:

  • Roll perks individually and without locking other perks.
  • Adjust the disparity that currently exist beyond 360+, so it doesn’t feel like we’re playing slot machines in Las Vegas.

If you are so against us crafting weapons:

  • Add a dropdown menu that let us select specific weapon types and then have 1 from each 1-10 range be represented in there and 380 as a rare chance from the 370-380 range. Heck, increase the cost if it makes it too easy or
  • Let our current max rating gear determine a smaller range of base rating weapons something in the order of +5 rating down to -20 rating that can appear.

Anything but the current system

I will update the thread as the dataset gets larger to see if there are any major deviances from the current set.

31 Likes
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Wow… well, thank you very much for your work. That’s worse than I expected.

I would like to say this sucks a lot but that would be very polite way of saying this.

Well, Fatshark I hope you are proud of yourself. Best gear progression design, 10/10 would not buy again.

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Blessings are also tiered, but we don’t have percentages for rarities yet, but even assuming equal chance that’s another *4 for that too. I suspect that blessings themselves have different rarities, but again, still need more data.

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Blessings comes in 25/35/45 - their upgrade tiers do not affect their rating tho as far as I can see - it merely adds fluff around their icon and I am already tracking this in the store :). They are far more reasonably spread out tho than the current perk rating spread which has such an abundance of 20 Rating Perks that it isn’t even funny… I mean 20 rating perks are sitting at an 89.5% chance to appear on green/blue gear, whereas 25 ratings sit at some 9.5% and 15 rating perks are like 1%…

I really hope we will be allowed to swap out both Blessings, otherwise it will be a nightmare to get any 45 Rating Blessing Weapons… With a 25 Rating Perk and have it be 360+

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There are so many layers of RNG and almost no mitigation. Ugh.

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Appalling.

This is Warframe levels of grind. Holy fudge balls. I was a closed beta tester of Waframe, enjoyed it a lot, however, I had to stop playing Warframe because of how grindy Digital Extremes made the game over the years. This is ridiculous. Why is Fatshark forcing this level of unfun into a skill based fps. These games aren’t even about the loot, dang it!

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I think it’s worse than Warframe, just because it has the timer as part of the RNG.

In Warframe, farming even the most egregiously RNG locked items is only 2 or so layers of RNG (farming relic → running relics) but you aren’t limited to how much you can farm. Oh, I forgot about Kuva Liches for a moment (random encounter x3-4 → weapon drop → all the shenanigans to upgrade it) but again they have things that can mitigate RNG to a degree (beacons) and it isn’t time locked in how often you can engage with it. Crafting timers aren’t really a part of Warframe’s RNG.

Here you have hard limits on attempts to engage with the RNG, multiple layers just for a base item, restrictions on rerolling and tiered and randomised layers in a single item. It’s worse than riven mods somehow. Fatshark, you created an RNG system that is worse than Warframe’s.

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It’s a lot more fun, if you just have fun and play.

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I am having fun when I play, it’s just that outside of missions, you are reminded of how ridiculous the itemisation systems are every single time you load into the Mourningstar. I also want to move on from my 200-300 rating items, but there’s never an upgrade in the shop for the last 50 hours.

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I am having fun. Playing Vermintide 2. Where I can use whatever weapon and build I want without any lame artificial barriers limiting my expression as a player.

9 Likes
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This is some nerdy sh*t. Good on you :slight_smile:

@Ashreon
I have been putting some thoughts into how the shop weapons are being calculated, but I’m not using any spreadsheets.

What I’ve been looking at are basically three things:

  1. rarity (color)
  2. total modifier score (what you’re tracking)
  3. total score (incl. perks & blessings)

Assumptions so far:

  • weapon rarity is limited by level (was the same in VT2)
  • modifier score is based on either level, modifier score of weapon in inventory, total weapon score or a combination (in VT2 I believe you rolled +/- ~5 power level, based on previously rolled weapons)

I haven’t seen any radical rise in weapon rarity since hitting level 30, so I started upgrading weapons to get a better total weapon score to see if that will change anything. It’s far too early to tell for me, but I was curious whether you made any observations in regards to raising weapon rating? Either consistently better modifier scores or raised total scores of the weapons presented in store.

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I’m sure this feedback will be very useful to Fatshark, thanks

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That one guy in company when everyone have IT issue: “Works on my end, I don’t know what problem you all have hehe!”. Great, Joe, thanks…

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i have now in 200 hours bought and upgraded 44 recon guns 22 each on veteran and psyker not one of them got inferno as a blessing nor had i gotten it on ANY other lasgun/pistol …

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None, I have weapons upwards 490 rating in my inventory, but the shop still just hovers around 280-410’ish (if you include blessings/perk rating). I would have expected to see if go up if you had such ratings in your inventory or at the very least picked them up. I flat out think that they removed said system from Darktide.
I even have a shredder autogun at 380 and a combat knife 371 to see if that affected anything, but it didn’t.

I think they’re using a distribution curve which tops out around 330 base rating and then more or less completely flattens by 360+

2 Likes
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Original post has been updated with current dataset numbers, no available data for 380 weapons as they have yet to appear.

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Nice work man this is exactly what ive been doing but much less organised.

I was starting to think I’m cursed or something.

Here’s hoping they change the crafting system

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Yay, data!

Out of curiosity, are you populating this sheet by manually checking every weapon in the shop one by one? Or do you have a better method of extracting the shop values?

And may I suggest expressing the Grey, Green and Blue weapon ratios as a percentage? The ratio is not very enlightening :upside_down_face:

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These stats are alright. Don’t worry about it.

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I was thinking of that, but there was a reason I didn’t which I have forgotten… Though I am seriously considering just adding the calculations for the chances straight into the sheet so I don’t have to do it every 10 iteration :).

I do it all manually, going through each weapon.