Would like if someone could peer review this and ensure I am not missing something.
Since you will need one specific max perk and blessing on a weapon (focusing only on that for now) trying to determine the odds of that.
20 perks in the game with 4 tiers means 80 possibilities.
Blessings vary by weapon (picking force sword as an example) it has 13 possible blessings each with 4 tiers (unsure if some only go as high as 3) meaning 52 possibilities.
(Been a while since I have done combinations and permutations) but that’s 1/4160 possible combinations between those two. 1/2080 since there’s 2 max perks you would want at 2/80 or 1/40.
That’s 0.048% to roll a weapon with those desired traits.
If you don’t care about max values but just the right combination that’s 2/20 or 1/10 for perks and 1/13 for blessings. For 1/130 and 0.769% chance.
This doesn’t account for:
1.) Modifiers being maxed in the right bars
2.) That different rarities of weapons give different blessing tiers
3.) Some blessings seem more rare to spawn in general, also affected by weapon rarity.
4.) Likelihood of weapon spawning in melks or store.
For curios it’s even worse as you need 3 perfect perks and with 22 to choose from its 1/88 chance of getting 1 max value. Which is a 1/681472 chance of occurring and 0.000146% chance of occurring.
With this being the case, assuming I am doing this right, this is too much of an ask in my opinion. It should not be this hard to get what you want to try things out. This doesn’t account for time spent rolling, acquiring, time in the shop or app, farming crafting resources etc. With the new profane purchase options you would just keep buying until you get max modifiers (that you like) and hope the odds work without running out of crafting resources. And assuming you would want to do this for multiple weapons and on multiple character where resources aren’t shared… This just seems designed to make you chase something in perpetuity without ever actually achieving it.
And while some of the new announcement helps alleviate some of the itemisation a bit, it still doesn’t help the ridiculously low odds for getting ONE perfect perk and ONE perfect blessing before crafting.
This is exactly what their Design Intent is all about. A system that looks like it rewards you, but never actually rewards you. All you get from playing is the crafting materials to pull the lever on the slot machine more times. You can’t actually work towards what you want, you can only have more chances at the lottery.
It’s transparently a terrible system that is actively hateful towards the players. This is the legacy FatShark wants, this is what they want to be remembered for.
Perks tiers only comes in T1, T2 and T3 (15/20/25)
T2 has an 88% chance to appear
T3 has an 11% chance to appear
Blessings comes in 3-5 tiers (as far as I could understand) from 25/35/45… However, I’ve noticed that 45 seem to include T4 & 5 and I guess 35 include T2 & 3.
T1 has some 64% to appear
T2/3 has some 32% chance
T4/5 has some 3.67%
That’s the distribution of perks/blessings according to tier.
So, you need to account for those chances as well…
Essentially you want either of 2 specific perks that’s out of 20 that’s 10% chance and they got a 3.67% chance to be the right tier. So your calculation would be 0.1 * 0.11.
Same goes for blessings, there’s 13, you want either of the two that’s 0.15 * 0,0367
The next problem arrives that none of us that took statistics last time, bothered noting down rarity of perks/blessings, so we have no clue how that would affect it. Safe to say that it would make it all much worse.
What is going to be interesting is the new distribution curve, but I’m not going to lie, unless it is showering you in 380 weapons… It won’t matter.
Profane weapons won’t solve anything, 'cos they will require upgrading which means you’ll need to get materials which incidentally means that THEY ARE CAPPED PER HOUR.
To also put it into some perspective, anecdotally, in ~200 hours of Vermintide 2, I had all 15 careers kitted out either with reds or red-equivalent oranges.
In 400+ hours of Darktide, I have four 380s spread over 4 characters, 3 of which are weapons I don’t like using, and not a single weapon that has 2 good T4 perks and/or 2 good T4 blessings, or curios with more than one T4 perk.
well its been 30 ish years since i did math so ill avoid reviewing your numbers but some issues with the methodology.
they seem to be linked to item level , i have no one ot two level perks on any gear so i think thats down to 40 possibilities id also argue to be viable tier 3 is fine
i think this would be 48 as your actually picking out of 12 ? as you can select a t4 in the other slot of your choice? and again personally i think tier 1 in the off blessing is probably enough to make most builds viable .
also some weapons have as few as 6 blessings , that would be 20 possibilities
i dunno maybe, but you have picked the widest and most specific results. if for example you just want to try an eviscerator with momentum the odds go up to 22%
im not sure how many builds actually need multiple blessings and perks and require them to be top level
there are some things we dont know , will the new sire melk feature much more reliably higher value gear with a skew to higher tier perks and bless’s
how will the emp rewards gear skew
we still havent heard of how or what gets us from 80-100+ percent there could be a treadmill progress system added to just keep upgrading base stats and perks added in the first expansion , might be my suspicious mind but it makes no sense to me that the top 20% of the range rolls is locked out.
and this will be version 1.0 im sure there will be refinements going forward
So yeah its a system designed to make it fairly easy to get a viable weapon and almost impossible to get a max weapon , which is a choice frankly it is probably the type of system i would use .
theres 2 groups that will be vocal here and you wont please both , either people will complain that its impossible to get max items so its bad , or you will have people complainingt hey have completed it and nothing left to work for
Some weapons have 13 blessings, some have much fewer. Curios are the biggest offender though, especially since you would need 12 perfect ones. 3 per character. The changes they are making are mostly good, but won’t change the chances. It’s kind of predatory to make it this impossible for max gear.
Im not much use when it comes to calculating odds. But I feel that a progressive system or two in place would help to avoid alot of the rng, made, I added a thought on it in this other post today
Short version of it. Do missions, get an option to target a modifier or more that you wanna increase, either using current materials or some new material, The closer you wanna get to 100% modifier the more costly it will get but at least you know you’ll get there in time.
This can be done to all rng in the game, just dont make it too easy but give us a choice to perfect a few items in time
i dont follow how its predatory , looters have been using systems like this since diablo
if you needed it, they were selling it id get where your coming from . but its trivial to get gear capable of running anything , its not hard to get something with the specific blessings to make a build work .
The likelihood. What is a reasonable amount of hours of playtime to get one max curio? One max weapon? The issue, I think, is it’s more like psychological warfare because gamers will chase things for a 1% increase (and this may not be trivial if it hits breakpoints). I think the rarity and herculean task needed to get what you want is counter intuitive because the goal being so hard and random makes people not want to chase it, and I think is having the opposite effect, but the intention is there.
Looters also give at least 10x more loot than we can get in DT. DT isn’t a loot game, it’s a co-op horde shooter with item progression that stops letting you progress because of RNG.
well its a game that lets you progress at an ever smaller rate , i just dont see why its a problem
you can get something with the bless’s you want and is capable of completing your diffculty of choice super fast (in the new system i mean) then you get a slow drip of increasing improvements to look forward to and chip away at.
if it were hard to get entry level gear id see the isue but i just dont see the problem here.
I think the issues is it is not perceived as a slow drip or increasing improvements. I would be fine with that. But it’s an arduous and roundabout way to achieve that taking away time playing the game. Deep rock Galactic, for example. Had over clocks. You need to do missions to get over clocks, then find machine events and complete them to unlock the blue print. Then spend resources to actually get it. It was a loooong grind. But it actually felt good as a perception. Fully unlocked and balance changes in future updates didn’t mean throwing away the gun you worked hard at.
With this system balance passes are infuriating as you could have thrown out weapons with the new combo that looks good and your current weapons are useless now.
The other issue is based on the chances of actually getting what you want is that is is not a slow drip for improvements. This would take years and years of dedicated playing. Especially for break throughs. It would suck for my friends who have 100 hours just being objectively inferior to someone with 1000 hours because of chance and not as much skill. For a game like this I would much rather it be about trade offs and build, even things with negative values. A blessing that increases attack speed/fire rate but lowers overall damage. That way you have interesting choices for the players. And it’s more like “Have you tried setting this bar to this, with these perks and blessings? Hits good break points on T4 difficulty” for example.
I agree you have different people wanting different things and some may not care to grind just for cosmetics but need the eternal loot grind, but I think they are in the minority. I think most do not want that, as based on comments and reviews. IF the purpose of a game is to be fun, and to sell copies, and the grind is supposed to achieve higher player retention, I don’t think it’s doing that. And I think if something would require 10,000 hours to get all weapon types and varieties the way you want on all characters for different builds… that is predatory. It’s why loot crates and boxes were considered unhealthy due to the lottery affect. This isn’t much different it’s holding a carrot on a stick that will be hard to achieve, hungering but never satiated. And I think it’s not subtle enough that most players will be frustrated and stop chasing vs actually chase the carrot which is why I think if they are going to do RNG elements (not opposed to this) it should be easily achievable enough. If they are concerned only certain weapons, perk/blessing combinations would be used they need to balance the weapons/and such more.
If it were an actual slow drip of improvement I wouldn’t be disliking the system so much. It’s all RNG still, I don’t know when I’ll get an upgrade. Trying to get all the factors lined up to the point it will be an upgrade is ludicrously miniscule. I can already do all the difficulties, but it doesn’t stop me from wanting:
a. A solid base of maxed items so that I can be sure it’s not item quality that is making me miss breakpoints, or getting into bad habits because of making do with imperfect items/stats.
b. To be able to reliably or quickly build a new set of items to try a different build.
