Looking for someone with good math skills to help me calculate how BS the RNG fiesta in this game is for getting gear. Anyone good from statistic/probabilty/math willing to help?

Warhammer 40,000: Darktide General Discussion
1

Nothing shows people truth as much as hard numbers but sadly I am not a math guy so I am looking for assistance here. I need someone to calculate how much it would take to get the item you want in Darktide with current RNG fiesta. The calculation:

  1. You have 12 items per 60 min random in store
  2. You want X weapon there. You want Y variant of some of those weapons too (for example Devil’s Claw has 3 variants).
  3. You want good base stat roll, 370-380
  4. You want that good stat rolls in right stats (so for example you want 80% damage and 60% mobility, not other way around)
  5. Since you will be able to reroll ONLY one perk you want it to be green at least with ONE perk that will be the one you want/need on top of point 1-4. Or White and have % chance to get that perk on Consecration
  6. We will probably be able to change only one blessing to keep RNG grind on highest like with perks so you also want it to be BLULE item on top of points 1-5 so at least ONE blessing is the one you want/need since you may be able to change only one. Though calculation should be done first with 1-5 in mind as this is what we will get. 1-6 as side note calculation.

How wonder how many months/years of gameplay it would take to aquire such item.

2

Without knowing how the RNG system work and the % numbers they use for the calculation it is almost impossible to calculate this sadly.
But just thinking a moment about this, this could take really up to years …

You would need all the numbers, odds and failsafes.

1 Like
3

Just estimation, even optimistic would still be riddiculous enough to prove the point.

4

Need to know the number of weapons for your class (we’ll call variants different weapons for simplicity), the number of weapon blessings there are to choose from, and the number of perks there are to choose from.

If you give me those numbers, I’ll give you the probabilities.

(edit)
So I just looked up some numbers for one of the weapons I use as a zealot with an axe, here’s what I got.

Total # of weapons = 24,
Number of blessings for axe = 9, and
Number of perks for axe = 20.

Assuming for simplicity that each weapon has 9 blessings and 20 perks we have:
Number of combinations = 24 * ncr(9, 2) * ncr(20, 2)
= 24 * 36 * 190
= 164,160 combinations.

So assuming the actual thing you want is just one of those combinations, not counting the 12 weapons in the store at any given hour bottleneck, the probability you get what you want is
1 / 164,160 = 0.000006 = 0.0006%.

I haven’t double checked this, but that’s my first estimate, it’s probably close to this number.

1 Like
5

It’s likely hundreds of thousands when every single modifier is taken into account. It’s actually probably millions honestly.

Just TRAIT combinations from the Catachan combat knife alone from a thread where I proposed an idea on how to soften their RNG.

6

Thanks.

So we got 0.0006% before even looking at the stats of the weapon.

You could probably remove one of the two blessings on the weapon from the calculation. We are graciously allowed to roll one of them in the coming future.

7

For each reroll you add 1/9 * original_probability = (6*10^-6 * 1/9 *100)%.

E.g. For n rerolls we have a 0.0006% + 1/9* 0.000006 + (1/9)^2 * 0.000006 + …
= 0.000006(1 + 1/9 + (1/9)^2 + … + (1/9)^n) * 100%
chance.

In summary, with n rerolls of one blessing, the chance is
0.000006 (1 + 1/9 + (1/9)^2 + … + (1/9)^n)

P.s. If you want the probability for rerolling perks replace 1/9 with 1/20.

8

Ah yes, when you want to use science to reach an already determined opinion, just like intended.

9

math isn’t science.

10

Solid data always hits harder than opinion or feeling. Anyone with brain obviously sees how horrible RNG is right now but hard data can’t be ignored with “it’s just your opinion”. If I can I like to have solid data even if I already know it will just confirm what we all know.

1 Like
11

I remember a user who did a breakdown of his odds of getting a force sword:

1 Like
12

People on reddit also start math wizardry.

I totally forced the fact that you can low roll blessings out of mind.

13

that’s not even taking the odds of a good base into account.

14

@Benny89 You’re going to love this thread:

1 Like
15

I absolutely hate everything I read there… Though I expected as much.

That is really sad state of the game. Thanks for linking me that btw.

2 Likes