Let’s talk about the crafting odds... or at least an idea of what they are

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 2:09am

Following this thread: [Crafting] Never tell me the odds! Or you know what…?

In this thread, the OP proposed to calculate the odds to get 1 weapon with all the characteristics you would want.
I will skip the part about the modifiers, I already said that there is a problem with Brunt’s and something could be also done about the shop (why not allowing us to refresh the weapons we can buy against money?). Also, the combinations are correctly calculated. However, I don’t think that is a problem… problem is more that we cannot get high quality weapon with Brunt… except burning looooot of money.

you can find below how I have made the probabilities.

Probabilities calculations

Collecting datas

I started to collect datas soon after the thread I quoted was created following a discussion about the odds to get an excellent weapon. What decided me was the statement of someone starting with a F that you had 25% chances per tier to find a blessing. So, 25% to get a T1 blessing, 25% a T2 etc. This is absolutely false.
I have only noted weapons crafted from this time. Everything I could have crafted before has not been taken into consideration.
You will see several (a lot) of weapons that have no indications at T1 and T2. This is due to the fact that I never use Brunt’s. I buy exclusively my weapons from Merk and the normal shop.

I have crafted only 375+ weapons. Higher are the modifiers rate, higher are the odds to get a blessing of higher tiers.
More weapons I will add to the model, more precise will be the probabilities. I would like to succeed to craft a tier II blessings on such weapon… don’t know if it is even possible. But, I want more weapons crafted to get more accurate probabilities. I have found only 1 perk T2. So, I guess that you have one chance to get a T2 (and maybe a T1) blessing. However, it should be a sort of accident.
These inputs permit to determinate the distribution of tiers for perks and blessing.
At the time I publish this, I have run out of 375+ weapons…

Here the table (won’t be actualized)

Perks odds

Let’s say that I have taken in consideration two situations.

First, you really want two perks, clearly identified, on your weapon. This is called in the model as “perk wanted”
Second, you consider that there are several interesting perks. I consider that the average number of interesting perks is 6. It can differ for each weapon, but usually there are always 6 perks that I would be happy to find. This is called in the model as “perk interesting”

I will detail the way I have calculated the odds for perks just by showing it for 2 wanted perks. Just a reminder, there are 15 perks for melee weapons and also for ranged weapons. So the odds are the same on both types.
So, you want 2 perks. This means that you have 2 chances to find the perk wanted when consecrating to Green. As there is 15 perks, this means the odds are: 2 / 15 = 13,33%.
Now, 2 situations. Or we have found one of the perk wanted and then we have only 1 chance to get a perk wanted when consecrating to purple. If we did not find it, we have yet 2 chances. At purple, the perk pool has 14 perks left.
This means that, if we have found the wanted perk, the odds are: 1 / 14 = 7,14%
If we did not find the wanted perk the odds are: 2 / 14 = 14,29%
With the distribution of perk tiers calculated from the weapons I have crafted, we can calculate the odds to get a perk wanted tier II, III or IV.

Here the table:

Blessings odds

Here I have tried two methods:

in the v1, I considered the number of blessings of a weapon and calculated the odds to get the blessing wanted… However, it is not how it should work
in the v2, I have taken into consideration the number of blessings that can be found at any tier, and the number of blessings limited to a tier or several tiers. I call them “Blessings unique”.

Let’s say that have stopped to work on the V1, cause it lacks of precision. I am not sure that FS did not adjust odds for rare blessings… As I cannot check that, I made calculations considering that every blessing had the same chance to appear.

So, let’s explain how I calculated the odds for blessings. We will take the example of the plasma gun. Plasma gun has one unique blessing at T3 and 4 blessings at all tiers.
As for the perks, at blue if we want two blessings, we have 2 chances to found them and plasma has 4 blessings in the pool (5 for T3). it means the odds are:

Tier II: 2 / 4 = 0.5 = 50%
Tier III: 2 / 5 = 0.4 = 40%
Tier II: 2 / 4 = 0.5 = 50%

Now, at orange, same about perks.

or we have find the blessing wanted and then we have only one chance to find what we want when consecrating at orange
or we did not find one blessing wanted, and then we have only 1 chance.

The blessing pool has been reduced by 1. So, this means that the odds are:

If we have found one wanted blessing when consecrating to blue:
- Tier II: 2 / 4 = 0.5 = 50%
- Tier III: 2 / 5 = 0.4 = 40%
- Tier II: 2 / 4 = 0.5 = 50%
If we haven’t found one wanted blessing when consecrating to blue:
- Tier II: 2 / 3 = 0.66 = 66%
- Tier III: 2 / 4 = 0.5 = 50%
- Tier II: 2 / 3 = 0.66 = 66%
  As we know the odds to get tiers II, III or IV, we have just to apply it to the result.

Here the table (won’t be actualized):

Get the probabilities

From the calculations of the perks odds, we know now lot of statistics (see table in perk section).
From the calculation of the blessings odds, we have found lot of probabilities about getting a wanted blessing.
We can now combine both.
So if we want two blessings Tier IV on our plasma gun, we know that the chances to get one blessing wanted at T4 is the average of the chances to get one at blue and the chances to get one at orange if we did not find it earlier.
This means that the odds are: (Proba to get blessing wanted at blue + proba to get blessing wanted at orange if we did not get it earlier ) / 2
so: (0.02 + 0.2) / 2 = 0.1122 = 11,22%
But, if we want to find 2 blessings tier IV, this means that we have found one at blue. So, we will use the odds to get the second blessing wanted at orange when we have got one at blue.
This means that the odds are: Proba to get one wanted blessing at blue x Proba to get one blessing wanted at orange if we had one at blue
So: 0.02 x 0.1 = 0.0023 = 0.23%

Every probabilities follow the same logic.
Here the table (won’t be actualized):

Datas

You can find the screenshots of the weapons I crafted here.
I do not have the screenshot of the 4th I have crafted (bad so I discarded it). Also, until the 7th weapon I crafted, I did not take screenshots. Then I decided to save a ss of every weapon I crafted in this experience, before any rebless / refine. But weapons 1 to 6 have been reblessed / refined.

There is 100 purple and orange craft. While I think that brute force to check stats have the problem of the luck or bad luck, if you put enough inputs, a bad series or a too lucky series tend to vanish and you get a final picture from all these numbers.

Now, let’s expose the probabilities.
I named:

A perfect weapon: a weapon that has 2 blessings tier IV wanted and 2 perks tier IV wanted
A close to perfect weapon: a weapon with 2 wanted blessings tier IV, 1 perk tier IV wanted and 1 perk tier III
An excellent weapon: a weapon with 2 blessings tier IV wanted and one perk interesting tier III or IV

-will be actualized-

Number of crafts to have 100% chances to reach something

Number of weapons you need to craft to get 100% chances (in theory) to get something:

At the time I write these lines, you have 4,78% (2.79% before correction lol) chances to get one perfect plasma gun, considering you want 2 perks tier IV and two blessings tier IV.
However, if you want one with Blaze Away, you have 20.73% (6,69% before correction. again… lol) chances to get it.

From my experience, I would say that the odds to get a T4 are:

at green: 25%
at blue: 20%
at purple: 25%
at orange: 60%

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 2:09am

How do I craft my weapons?

Let’s say it, the quality of your weapon will mitigate the RNG. Higher is the quality (= modifiers rating), better are the odds to get T4 blessing.
So, I never buy from Brunt. I only buy from Merk and the normal shop.

My advices about crafting:

Always try to craft 370+ weapons. Better to limit that to 375+.
Try to collect as much blessings as you can. You can find them by crafting weapons, but don’t underestimate the help that you can get from Merk in this quest. Collecting blessings will make your life easier to get what you want.
Learn your probabilities. If you want 2 blessings, and you buy a weapon that has a T1 blessing you wanted… your odds have decreased a lot (ex: for force sword you would have 14.25% instead of 25,5%).
Buy anything from the normal shop that could potentially, one day, interest you and have good stats.
Always keep a lingots reserve to be able to buy from Merk. About contracts, you should try to get collect plasteel / collect diamantine / kill x with ranged weapon / kill monstruosities. Kill dregs with melee is ok, kill scabs with melee is longer (lot of ranged enemies in scabs). Avoid collect scripts / no death in mission. I also try to avoid the complete x missions cause when you wipe you don’t get any progress in your objectives (but sure, while it applies at damnation+, this objective is fine if you lower the difficulty).
Don’t forget the last update addition that allow you to change 2 blessings. This can permits you to test lot of blessing combinations. This can also permits you to create excellent weapons (did it myself several times)
Did I say, avoid Brunt?

I say it. I think that the main problem is not the crafting itself. Costs could be reduced, and I would love such move (for other players). But the problem is Brunt’s. This is a good feature, poorly implemented. The RNG is not mitigated at all at Brunt’s and so you spend a lot of money and have a low chance to get something good. And even if you find something good, there are few chances that you get, at first try, the weapon you wanted.

brosgw · September 5, 2023, 3:56am

The issue is fatshark doesn’t give us the RNG info. But they should. Different tier weapons rolling different tiers of blessings and perks. Maybe modifiers play a role to. The issue is tier 4 blessings spawning is already super rare. Even 370+ weapons are a rarity at melks at armoury to an extent. And some weapon types seem to spawn A LOT more than others.

Positron · September 5, 2023, 6:25am

This is really interesting, well documented, and well done. I acquire items the same way you do (only using Brunt’s a few times to test it out how it worked and being very disappointed), and have had similar odds in achieving what you reasonably describe as an “excellent” weapon. It’s nice to see this confirmed via your research.

An anomaly I’ve noticed is that you received 0 2nd level Blessings (and only 1 perk). I’ve definitely (if rarely) received 2nd level Blessings on both Blue and Orange consecrations. I use the browser app to check the store occasionally when I’m home, and I have my filters set to only notice items of 367 or higher, so I’m guessing this slightly lower base rating for some of my weapons is the cause.

I wasn’t aware base rating had this much of an impact, and that’s a bit unfortunate considering the only way to get reliably get them is through spending huge amount of money through Brunt’s or be extremely patient checking the armoury hourly for months. Item acquisition seems to the biggest gatekeeper at the moment when it comes to getting what you want in a reasonably amount of time.

Overly wordy rant.

If you spend maybe ~1300 Plasteel on average upgrading a weapon to orange, and it takes ~7 rolls to get what you want, you’re looking at ~9000 Plasteel to get something close to what you want for any given weapon. That is about 13 games played, which equals 8-9 hours of playtime, but it’s not horribly unreasonable considering the kind of hours people can put into these games and that you will very likely get something “decent” along the way. If players are careful with their resources, it’s likely once they hit level 30 they can craft at least one good set of “meta” weapons without having to grind for it.

Looking at this, I honestly think the biggest issue with the crafting system at the moment is item acquisition. Actually getting those base 370+ weapons with the right stat distribution so you can actually roll ~7 weapons for a decent chance at an “excellent” one takes far more time than actually obtaining the materials to craft them, and can’t really be expediated by actually playing the game unless you gamble your life away for the incredibly low odds Brunt gives you.

This isn’t to defend locks; I enjoy them about as much as the rest of the community, but they’re hardly the gatekeeper to good weapons in the current system. Removing locks, however, would lend the RNG to finding only a single high base weapon with a good stat distribution in order to craft a guaranteed perfect weapon, rather than finding ~7 for a chance at one. Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem to be what FatShark is going for.

Blessing acquisition also isn’t the worst, but often leaves players without a few “core” blessings with no real way to get one quickly outside of wasting valuable materials on another lottery. I’m guessing FatShark probably has some long term plan to allow us to aim for more targeted gear, as discussed in their pre-launch dev blogs, given their statements in the last Dev Blog about removing the locks affecting item acquisition. Something like this, with actually playing the game giving us more player agency, would probably fix most of the issues a lot of us have with the current system.

Flawless · September 5, 2023, 7:19am

Do you mean average number?
Because with pure RNG without a pity system, there is absolutely nothing that guarantees any specific result at any point. With bad RNG, you might never get it at all.

Going by your example of a ~2.8% chance to get a perfect plasma gun from a perfect base item, it would take an average of ~36 attempts at upgrading a weapon with perfect modifiers, to get a perfect weapon.
But
~2.8% of players will get a perfect weapon with 1 upgrading attempt.
~36% of players will not get a perfect weapon within the average 36 upgrading attempts.
~5.8% of players will not get a perfect weapon with 100 upgrading attempts.
~1.4% of players will not get a perfect weapon with 150 upgrading attempts.

These numbers are wrong.
(I would assume that you probably made more calculations of the same type and that those are also wrong, but i won’t go out of my way to search for all of the wrong calculations and point them out.)

I will explain at the example of the chance to get exactly 1 wanted perk (out of the two that you would want) and that perk being T4:

either you get one of the two good ones at green upgrade, but none at purple upgrade:
(2/15)*0.25 *(13/14)=0.031 = 3.1%

or you get one of the two good ones at purple upgrade, but none at green upgrade
(13/15)*(2/14)*0.25=0.031 = 3.1%

These two scenarios exclude each other, so to get the chances for either one of those to happen, you simply add the chances for the two unique scenarios (rolling a dice, getting a 6 is 1/6, getting a 3 is 1/6, getting either a 3 or a 6 is 2/6).
So the correct number for 1 wanted T4 perk is not 3.31%, but 6.2%.

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 7:35am

I have thinked to it also… but I doubt of it

You find pretty easily 370+ weapons… however, you cannot choose what will be in the shops. And so we return on your statement… and yes several seems to have better odds to appear (I think here to psykers…).

As I said, I believe that there is a chance to get a T2, or even a T1 blessing. However, the probabilities to get such (bad) blessing are really low.

Exactly what I think. Brunt needs a rework, something that would mitigate the RNG.

BFCInsomnia · September 5, 2023, 7:57am

Yeah and that’s the issue, a lot of these numbers assume you already have some pre-requisit which is also time/chance gated by RNG.

Saying that you have a 7% chance to get what you want, once you already have another aspect of what you want is just not representing the odds correctly. All this says is: “the luckier you get before you start crafting, the better your odds!” which is obvious -.-

Totally arbitrary and those numbers seem way off. Besids how accurate those numbers are, it only looks at the quality of the roll, not which roll you get. Getting the correct roll is way less likely than getting a desrieable quality of ANY roll.

All of this to say that ALL OF THIS DOESN’T MATTER since FS will not provide us with any actual odds, eventhough they should be forced to release all these gambling odds.

I don’t quite understand why we are pointing fingers at one or the other aspect of the RNG lasagna, the combination of all of it is what makes the system so insufferable. The whole thing needs to be ripped out and comletely reworked.

The two big aspects of crafting and item acqusition that make it so we are talking of odds to begin with are: random weapon stats (and how unlikely it is to get the combination you want / the inability to modify them at all) and the crafting locks (the inability to freely modify all aspects of our items).
Ideally, both of these would just go. Nobody asked for random weapon stats and nobody asked for crafting locks.

I honestly don’t care for work arounds and RNG mitigation, we should be asking FS to do better and come up with something that requires neither.

Flawless · September 5, 2023, 8:09am

Pretty sure they do.
Have you ever rolled T4 perks or blessings on a 200 modifier weapon?

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 8:29am

Not arbitrary… statistics from inputs.
In fact several have claimed that we had 25% of chances to get a T1 blessing, at orange. But I never found a T2 blessing when consecrating at orange, I believe it can happen, but this is a relative rare situation.
This is what made me to do this work… cause there was people that were claiming that you had same chances to get a T1 blessing than getting a T4 blessing.

Also, several also denied that the quality of a weapon as an impact of the odds to get a T4 blessing.

And there was someone that said that the odds I presented were false cause we were not taking into consideration the tier we obtain. That was true and I had explained that we needed the code behind to calculate the odds, or use the brute force method (the one I used here). As I said, the brute force method has its flaws. The main one is that you need a lot of datas to get something accurate. But, now, we can have an idea of the odds to get a good weapon.

Obviously, not. The OP (me) wanted to talk about the odds to get a good weapon with a 375+ modifiers.
About item acquisition, nothing new here… 5 months I say that Brunt needs something to be done. I have even said it 3 times in my 2 posts.

Already discussed a lot… they don’t want to rework entirely the system (and tbh, I prefer that they give us content instead of perpetually rework a system). I said it numerous times, I hate RNG. I would have preferred a system without any RNG at all.
But I think you have seen that, in 6 months, they have not changed their mind.
So, I prefer pointing what is obviously broken in the current system and needs to be fixed, instead of waiting something that may never happen. Cause if it never happen, the problems I see in game will stay forever.

My bad. I have read too fast…
Yes obviously modifiers have a direct impact.
What I wondered is, does getting a T4 blessing or a T4 perk can increase the odds to get a T4 blessing or T4 perk when crafting again the weapon to an higher consecration level?
On this point, I doubt it impacts the odds considering what I collected. However, it needs more testing as several times I have seen weapons chaining T4 perks / blessings (72-73-74,. 94, 95, 99, 102). So not so sure of that…

But, for modifiers, I am certain that it impacts the odds.
Even at 369, I am pretty sure that you get a lot less chances to get a T4 blessing (need to be verified, I let that to someone else, crafting 100 weapons takes time, and I want to play).

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 9:07am

When consecrating to green, the perk pool has 15 perks. When consecrating to purple, 14 (as you already have one on your weapon).
Or you get a wanted/interesting perk at green and then, as you have in mind the blessing you want, you have one less chance to find the other one you want at purple (or one less interesting perk you could get)

So the odds to get the perk you want are:
at green: 2 chances over the 15 perks that are in the pool (or 6 chances if you consider that any weapon have 6 interesting perks), so 2 (chances to get something you want) / 15 (number of perks in the pool) = 13,33%
at purple:

if you’ve found what you wanted (even without being T4), odds have decreased as remain only 1 chance to get what you want (or 5 if you consider there is 6 interesting blessing). So 1 (chance to get what we want) / 14 (number of perks remaining in the pool) = 7,14%
if you have not found what you wanted, you have yet 2 chances (or 6 for interesting perk) to get what you want, and the pool has be reduced by one. So: 2 (chances to get what we want) / 14 (remaining perks in the pool) = 14,29%

As we try to see if you will find a T4 perk, you need to apply the tier distribution to these numbers (something that is done and also explained). So, here we apply the odds to get a T4 perk (or T3).

Could you explain your calculations?
(13/15)*(2/14)*0.25=0.031 = 3.1%
what means 13? 15 is not the number of remaining perks at purple (15 perks in the pool, if you craft one at green, there is 14 remaining). So why this 15? why 13/15?
2/14, I understand… but why the other reductions… I don’t really understand what you try to calculate. In my model, I wanted to calculate the odds to get a T4 (or T3) wanted blessing (or interesting).
25% why?

The ss you posted shows the chances to get 1 wanted perk T4. This is the addition, as this is two distincts events, of the chances to get a wanted perk at green and the chances to get a wanted perk at purple if you have not found one at green. You will find the chances to get ONE T4 perk wanted (but not two, as here the odds would exclude themselves).

Here you see the calculation for 2 wanted perks T4. So the proba to get the wanted perk at green x the odds to get a wanted perk at purple considering you have found one wanted at green.

Flawless · September 5, 2023, 9:28am

first roll: (2/15)*0.25 = chance to get one of the two perks that you want (out of the full pool of 15), with a 25% chance of the perk being a T4
second roll: (13/14) = chance to get either of the 13 unwanted perks (in the pool of 14 remaining perks).
outcome: 1st perk is T4 of choice, 2nd perk is bad

first roll: (13/15) = chance to get either of the 13 unwanted perks (out of the full pool of 15 perks).
second roll: (2/14)*0.25 = chance to get either of the 2 wanted perks (out of the remaining pool of 14 perks), with a 25% chance of the perk being a T4 (i guess this one should say 23% based on your data).
outcome: 1st perk is bad, 2nd perk is T4 of choice

As per your own data, this is the chance to get a T4 perk, no?

Although your data indicates a ~23% probability to get a T4 perk from the purple upgrade, I just used 25% for both the green and purple perk.

Flawless · September 5, 2023, 9:47am

Yes. This is what i calculated.

Either you get 1st, but not 2nd perk.
Or you get 2nd but not 1st perk.

But when you calculated the same thing, you did not simply add the probabilities for those two mutually exclusive events in order to get the probability of getting 1 perk of choice.
You added them and then divided by 2 for some reason.

Rolling a dice and getting a 1 has a 1/6 chance.
Rolling a dice and getting a 2 has a 1/6 chance.
Those two events are mutually exclusive (like in our perk 1 vs perk 2 example).
If we accept either of those two events, we simply add the probabilities of the individual events.
Same thing with “1st perk good, 2nd perk bad” and “1st perk bad, 2nd perk good”.

But after you added them together, you divided them by 2, which then leads to an incorrect probability.

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 10:00am

You realize that it is exactly what I did… except that I did not use the arbitrary 25% but calculated with the percent of weapons crafted at green that have received a T4 blessing (so 26.1% at the time I write these lines). Same for purple…

1st: you calculate the odds to get one wanted perk
2nd: you calculate the chances that this wanted perk is T4.

you could invert, it gives same result.

Flawless · September 5, 2023, 10:01am

Yes you calculated the same thing initially.
And then (as i mentioned multiple times now) you divided the correct result by 2, which then makes your calculation and the final result wrong.

You initially calculated the chances to get

1st perk right, but not 2nd
2nd perk right, but not 1st

The numbers in the green boxes are the seemingly correct probabilities for the two scenarios that end in one of the two perks being a right one. You correctly added them together.
Adding them together would result in the overall probability of getting exactly 1 perk of choice (either only the first one, or only the second one being a perk of choice).

The stuff in the red boxes, i have no idea why you wrote it, as it makes the equations and the results incorrect. There is no reason to divide the already correctly calculated probability by 2.

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 10:44am

Did not actualize this picture… long time the post was written and I waited to collect enough datas

Here the actualized one (not changed a single formula)

Average chances to get a wanted T4 perk (or T3).
For T3: You get 9,85% chances to find a wanted blessing at green. You have 10,5% chances to find a T3 wanted perk at purple, considering you did not find one at green.
So you have 9,85 (green) + 10,5 (purple - did not find at green)
However, you have to consider that it is the chance to find a T3 perk at green but not at purple, or to find a T3 perk wanted at purple and not at green (so chances to get ONLY 1 perk wanted).

So, this is the average chances to get a T3 wanted perk (or interesting, or a T4 etc.)

to give you an example:
If I have 40% chances to get what you want when the 1st event happen and 80% for the second. You have 60% ((40+80)/2) chances in average to get what you want one time (so or at green or at purple) and not 120% (80+40).

As the two events cannot occurs, and we want to make calculations that it doesn’t occur, this has to be an average chance. So that’s why I divided by 2.

Flawless · September 5, 2023, 10:54am

You are talking about a chain of events, not about mutually exclusive events.
There is absolutely no reason for you to try and explain how to calculate the probability for a chain of events.
I did not criticize you for incorrectly calculating a chain of events, and you and i both calculated those correctly.

I criticized you for incorrectly calculating the probability of the occurance of either of two mutually exclusive outcomes.
I even gave you an example with a dice roll (the different number rolls are mutually exclusive outcomes).

This makes no sense.

Here is my last attempt at making you understand why you did it wrong.

We are talking about your incorrect calculation for the chance of a sum of mutually exclusive events.
Getting “1st perk good, 2nd perk bad” or “1st perk bad, 2nd perk good” = mutually exclusive events.
Rolling different numbers on a dice = mutually exclusive events.

Chance to roll a 1 =1/6
Chance to roll a 2 =1/6
Chance to roll a 3 =1/6
Chance to roll a 4 =1/6
Chance to roll a 5 =1/6
Chance to roll a 6 =1/6

Chance to roll either a 1 or 2: add the probabilities together → 1/6+1/6 = 2/6 = 33.3%.
Chance to roll either a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6: add the probabilities together → 1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6 = 6/6 = 100%.

There is absolutely no point in dividing these probabilities by 2 or 6 afterwards.

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 11:41am

In your example, you never roll the dice several times.
If you roll the dice, you add proba then you divide by the number of rolls.

I have a problem with the possibility to get 120% chances to get something.
As I said, if you have 40% at first roll to get a number, and 80% at the second roll, you never get 120% chances to get the number you wanted. At the second roll, 20% of the time you roll it, you will not get what you wanted.

And to be complete… this is also how I calculated blessing odds. At first, I made the same mistake and calculated like you did. However, when building the stats, I encountered the plasma gun problem.
What happened with plasma gun (Probabilities to get one blessing wanted tier III+ on the weapon) made me realize that there was something wrong with adding all percentages. There was more than 100% chances to get something, and this is not possible as we already know that there are odds that the event did not happen. So I realized that we had to take into account that it is 2 events that are exclusive (or event 1 occurs, or event 2 occurs, but not both).
To give you the example of plasma gun.
You have 32.35% chances to find a T3 blessing you want and 9,56% chances to get a T4 wanted when crafting to green
You have, considering the fact you did not find the blessing you want at green, 21,5% chances to find a wanted blessing at T3 and 38% at T4 at orange.
If you add all this, you get: 32,35 + 9, 56 + 21,5 +38 = 101,4 % chances to get a T3+ blessing you want on your plasma gun.
Considering the plasma gun has 4 blessings + 1 unique, you cannot get more than 100% chances to find the blessing you want at T3+ as you search only 2 of them and you have yet odds to get something you did not want.
So I divided by 2 (2 events) to find average chances (so 50,71% chances to get a T3+ blessing we want). This is correct cause you have 41.91% chances to find a T3+ blessing wanted at blue and 59,5% chances to find a T3+ blessing wanted at orange. This means the chances to get a T3+ blessing is the average of these odds. So (50,71 + 41,91) / 2 = 50,71%.

Tzcheese · September 5, 2023, 12:53pm

Would you two just kiss already?

Flawless · September 5, 2023, 1:13pm

Dude…
My calculation is correct
Your calculation is not.

I explained it to you, as i would to a child.
If you still do not understand the reasoning, i do not think that there is any way to make you understand.
So i give up.
Believe what you want.

If you realized your mistake in one calculation, why can you not realize your mistake in this one?

My intention was not to stir things up, or to engage in a long conversation with the guy. I simply intended to point out his mistake, so that he can update his calculations to be correct.

If i had to do something with him, i would make him go to a maths/statistics course.
Or make him look at a website that explains statistics.

@Ralendil There you go my man.

Mutually Exclusive Events (mathsisfun.com)

Ralendil · September 5, 2023, 1:47pm

But checking somewhere, we are both wrong.
Correct calculations add both and you subtract 2 times the chances that both occurs

If two events A and B are not disjoint, then the probability of their union (the event that A or B occurs) is equal to the sum of their probabilities minus the sum of their intersection .

This is for one event

not mutually exclusive as we want 2 perks… so we can find one we want at first try and find the second at second try

I check that this evening…

PS: you know you don’t have to act rudely. If something is wrong, it must be corrected. However, I explained you why I think your calculation was wrong.
We were both wrong. Great. Now let’s correct the stats…

I think that the odds will increase…

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Let’s talk about the crafting odds... or at least an idea of what they are

How do I craft my weapons?

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