I had a good chuckle turn cackling at that one. Yeah, I guess it “just works” with my constant memes.
I know you’re kinda playing fast and loose with the math here by ignoring the weights here but they are significantly in our favor. At level 30, for instance, it is ONLY possible to get a weapon between 281 to 380 from either Brunt’s, the Armoury, or the Emperor’s Gift while Melk’s will be from 330 to 380 and, of course all these distributions are themselves weighted (not towards the high end in these cases but typically centrally except for Melk’s which is weighted to the low end of it’s band).
Weapons have their separate weightings (i.e. autoguns are more common than plasma guns), blessing tiers are weighted, and it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that Blessing types are weighted too since everything else is.
Yeah those calculations do not take into account weighted probabilities but that’s understandable since it’s a pain in the butt to account for, especially since it’s all conjecture anyways.
Even if the probabilities were correctly weighted, the result is still perfectly visible: they are complete garbage.
Or do you want to suggest again that the odds are: “Craft what I want/Just get lucky” again?
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The odds will be very correct with the new patch as you will have a 100% chance to be able to choose whatever blessing combo you want.
And yes, we are far away, in term of probabilities, of what the OP describes.
As I said, close to the mythic 380 modifiers, you have large chances to get a T4 blessing and close to no chance to get a T2.
As I have said by the past, until this patch getting 1 T4 perk and 2 blessing you want…
So actually, you need 1 blessing to be able to choose the other one.
So let’s take a combat axe. A combat axe has 9 blessings.
So it means that there is 9 possibilities of blessing when consecrating to blue and 8 when consecrating to orange. So, you have 1/9 chance to get what you want when consecrating to blue (11,11%) and 1/8 chance when consecrating to orange (12,.5%).
When you enter these value, this gives:
In other words, you get 1,38% chances to get the perfect weapon (means that you get the 2 blessings you want). And you have 22,22% chances to get one blessing that you want.
off course we are far from the 100% chances to get the perfect weapon at the first try that you all want…
The 1.38% chances is the percentage to get the 2 exact blessing you want. As we will be able to change the 2 perks… this means that it shows an idea of the chances to get a perfect weapon with 2 bad perks. However, with one perfect perk, your odds are increased to 22,22%.
Now the question is… are you arguing about the stats to get a good or excellent weapon, or the stats to get the perfect one? personally, 1.38% chances to get a perfect weapon, is not bad…
These stats don’t take into account the odds to get a T4 or T3. But getting a T4 with a 380 modifiers weapon is really high.n Yes this is not a 100% winning chance, but the chances are really high.
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so all you need is 72.46 mint condition grey items per god tier item (if you don’t get unlucky) basicly free
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You’re conveniently leaving out the tier probabilities when trying to show what the probability of rolling the blessing is as well. Your numbers only show the probability of rolling a certain blessing, regardless of its tier.
You do have a better chance of getting T3 and T4 when consecrating to orange, with a much higher chance getting T3.
In my experience it’s about the same chance to get a T2 or a T4.
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As I said numerous times… Brunt’s armoury is a robber.
If you check the normal shop, you have 100% chances to get the thing you buy.
I am very serious when I say I rely on normal shop. And that’s the reason I say that Brunt’s armoury needs a fix to make this shop somewhat useful.
I proposed a guarantee to get a 360+ weapon after 5 weapon bought and a 370+ after 10 purchases. This means that if you get 1 weapon 360 after 9 items bought, you would be assured to get a 370+ at the tenth weapon bought.
Tbh, I started to craft with Brunt’s armoury. The weapons I created using Brunt’s armoury are really the worst I have. You have too few chances to get something good with this shop.
As I said, I only use, now, normal shop or Merk’ shop.
So, yes, we agree that finding a good base weapon is a problem, as I pointed it numerous times.
In my experience, I have never seen a T2 blessing when consecrating to orange a 380 and I get, from time to time, a T3.
This works the same as curio. When you try to refine a curio, if the quality is too low, you have low odds to get a T4 perk. When you reroll you get lot of T2, few T3 and close to never a T4. I tried to refine a bad curio and the mod made something like 1800 attemps to get the T4 I wanted. I have let the game running while I was busy somewhere else.
It works the same with blessings.
And yes, they show only the probability to get the blessing you want. However, we are really far above the odds of the OP.
and I had also pointed that I cannot consider the probabilities to get a T4 blessing… and the OP has totally ignored this part, considering you have the same chance to get a T1 blessing on a 380 weapon than on a 245.
As I said, in the new system you will be able to change 2 perks… if you have the 2 blessings you want, you can choose the perks…
And 1.4% for a perfect weapon is not acceptable. So, what is acceptable considering that we have an RNG system… So, you would surely be able to get a perfect weapon at first mission. It reminds me a discussion on the blog…
As I said, people have difficulties to point the problem that they want to see solved, but keep complaining that FS doesn’t fix it. If the problem is the impossibility to have 100% chances to get the perfect weapon that will permit you to ignore everything around the missions, I fear that you will never get that as it would be a totally different game.
If it is getting a way to get a fabulous weapon like red weapons of VT2… well, let’s say you ask an end of the game life feature at the beginning of a new game.
reds will come… at least, I believe. But you ask FS to bring end development features to a game that is at the beginning of its life.
What will be the mechanisms they will use for this? will we let us create perfect weapons? wait and see.
Cause you seriously think that the OP odds are more accurate? you’re joking, isn’t it?
And, I have said the limitations of the probabilities I have shown. This is just to show that the OP calculations are just wrong.
Off course… you know what we can say? it’s what we never try that has no chance of happening.
Yes they are random. Yes you won’t get what you would want… as I said more than 30 times, there’s a problem with the system.
And as I said, my opinion is that there is 2 problems with the crafting system:
- it takes too much time for a normal player and even more for a casual
- nothing is done to permit us to get a good base weapon without spending time at checking shop
You see I point 2 problems clearly identified.
Odds to get a perfect weapon is not a problem. The difference between an excellent weapon and a perfect weapon is so small, than it doesn’t deserve to spend all its time to get the perfect one. Also, the system is made that you can potentially get a perfect weapon, but it should be something exceptional.
As I said, to speak about a problem, the problem needs to be identified. Until now, the “community” has not described what is its problem with the current crafting system. Locks are not a problem, but just a game concept part of the crafting system.
So, from your answer, I can get a beginning of answer. It seems that the community want a way to get easily perfect weapons. So, it is not about the odds to get an excellent weapon, but just the wish to be able to create perfect weapons.
As I said, red weapons are not for tomorrow. And I fear that, until that, FS won’t destroy the RNG system they created.
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It’s 100% to get the thing you buy but it’s not 100% that the shops contain something you want to buy.
Then you have to wait an hour for it to reroll. The only good part is that you can see what they have before spending any resources.
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Besides the fact that I have no clue which odds you’re talking about (sure as sh¡t can’t be the BS you’re cooking up)
This is the dumbest and most ignorant way of looking at it, good lord.
You’re ignoring entirely what the odds are of getting a new item (which you state yourself are p¡ss poor!) that you want to upgrade in the first place, then you are ignoring the fact that a lot of weapons get significant breakpoints with the correct perks so ignoring them entirely is also wrong and stupid.
1.4% is no acceptable probability for a “perfect” weapon, especially since your ignoring perks still and nobody has ever reffered to a perfect weapon as having only the correct blessings!?!
Reds in VT2 had a 100% to be perfect so going down to 1/66th of those odds (ignoring perks still) is a slap in the face already, nevermind the fact that 2 perks utterly nuke those odds! (Using some of your argumentation here btw)
Gotta love that you said before that his calcs are off and then you show this garbage leaving out several layers of RNG and ignoring weighted probabilities yourself 
You’re even ignoring all the RNG that goes into finding both blessings to put on your weapon.
Even if you have the perfect 380base with correct perks, if you didn’t manage to find both T4 blessings you want, you literally cannot get that perfect weapon.
And I swear to god if you say that BS again about “finding blessings is easy” so help me the godemperor… Remember the post I made about it taking 600k+ ordos and 30k plasteel to find decimator 4? Yeah that number increased to over double of each metric and I only found it from an emp gift…
I told you the last time already that using a probability calculator doesn’t make your numbers correct…
Oh good lord not this sh¡t again…
Get it through your head man: THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT SHOWS UP IN THE SHOP IN THE FIRST PLACE. It’s not 100%. Your argument is literally that the buy button ACTUALLY WORKS!
Buying something form an assortment of random items doesn’t make it a 100% chance to get what you want.
What’s your skull made of? 100% pure tungsten?
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the whole premise of this thread is 550 gear, nothing below.
stop explaining to me what you see as reasonable. this is not the thread about expectations
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Your assumptions are wrong…
Data: I already have a weapon (Combat Axe 380), new system allowing for rerolling 2 perks or 1 perk 1 blessing or 2 blessings is operational, also we remove 2 (perks or blessings or one each) with the least propability out of the equasion (so perks).
Conclusion:
With Bad model, if you already have perfect weapon you have 0,4% chance for set of 2 Blessings you want.
With Optimistic model you have 0,6% chance for desired set.
With WtHtI model you have 1% chance.
And for WtHtI model I have one reply:
This is a weapon, I’ve made from scratch after I’ve promissed to test this Mk. of shotgun:
This is a powersword made from scratch
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Who are you and what have you done with the Lt.DavinFelth that shot his sergeant in the back and posts memes.
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They have a fundamental misunderstanding of probability, RNG and how any of it applies to any situation.
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i abducted him to work as a meme miner.
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Even if you get more weapons quicker, you’re still having to dump 99%+ of them, which is something that is neither fun or satisfying, nor can the current item managment UI can handle either.
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Nothing to see here, only hadron applying meh blessings to my 500 ancient relics
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Hey man! Hold it down. It’s a machine gun! Machine gun! 
…yesterday when I got karking mad. I think I’m fine guys!
Anyway. Have anybody got second blessing as T1 when upgrading to Gold?
Preferably on 375+ weapon?
If so, It would also invalidate Optimistic model.
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I don’t think as I have said all limitations of an easy calculation of probabilities.
I have said that it was just for 1 hypothesis. this was to show that the simple maths exposed by the OP are simply wrong. But yes, I did not answered to the question behind this thread, cause I can’t and nobody here can.
Yes if you want the perfect one…
And from what I read, this is the demand of a party of the community is to get a way to get easily a perfect weapon(even if before it was said that it was not the expectation, but that the problem was that odds were too low to get a good weapon, but since, it was proved that it was wrong).
Better to ask to remove crafting.
Again, what do you want to see fixed?
So it means, what is for you the problem.
What do you want as an outcome?
Actually, what I read is:
Problem: I cannot get easily a perfect weapon
Outcome expected: I want to be able to get end game gear, perfect on every aspects, easily
I really doubt that they will modify the game in this direction. I really believe that we will get a red weapon system… but later.
It’s to get a perfect weapon at all. The only people who say people want to “get a perfect weapon within 5 minutes” is you and people trying to attack other people who criticises the itemsation.
The problem is that there is no definite path to a perfect item at all that isn’t mired in layers of RNG. Item acquistion sucks. Item modification sucks.
The locks, time to acquire weapons (of a good base) and the rarity of getting the combinations to line up are all related in how bad the system feels to interact with.
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