Cosmetic items vs math

There is a 1.11% chance of getting cosmetic item from a commendation chance according to these stats (proof). Which means there is a 98,89% chance of not getting a cosmetic item in a commendation chest. The chance of not getting a single cosmetic item in 800 chests equals to 0.9889^260 (raising 0.9889 to the power of 260). The result is 0.0549, which equals to about 5%. That means that 5% of players will not get any cosmetic items even after opening 260 chests.
And even after opening 400 chests 1% of the players, which is about 160 people, will still not get any cosmetic items. Fun fact, this calculation is confirmed by the data itself, where at one instance there was no cosmetic items for 370 chests in a row.

Now live with it.

P.S. On average you get 1 hat per 90 chests.


So basically worst than the odds of winning the grand prize in a rigged carnival game… the ones people generally avoid because we all realize it’s a scam. Sweet.


I think you can’t compare those 2 things. What calculations mean, is that some people ARE BOUND to be unlucky because of the pure randomness of the system. Some will be more unlucky, some will be less.

But unlike those carnival games, most will get the rewards. The question is only when. Because even on average you need to open 100%/1.11% =90 commendation chests on average to get 1 cosmetic item.

Feelsbadman, im over that number.


your math is flawed. it assumes law of averages to be true when binomial distribution is at play in the system. The system is fine.

^ this guy is suspended. tho his message out there

800 commendations chests, and still 5% to not get ANY cosmetics? I thought by 800 commendation you should get ALL cosmetics with 5% to not get one or two. 800 chests is 90 lvl per hero, probably about 1,2k hours played. well i love vermintide, but not THAT much


1,2k hours per one cosmetic…



@mr_sp1ce @Revy @Avar I failed the numbers guys, I am so sorry. The new data is there.

I love how all the data is there, there are direct links too, but you just making a statement without any prior fact checking. And right there, in the table, you can find a 370 chest gap between getting cosmetics. Also if you read what players say about it, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, there is clearly no binomial distribution.

The system is not fine!

I don’t even get why people are upset about this, one in our group has gotten 2 hats so far and he doesn’t use any of them because they are just hats, he can’t even see them during gameplay. A skin for a weapon is much, much more fun to get. A veteran item is actually useful compared to a hat.

I really don’t care about the cosmetics in game, they are just a minor bonus but I would have much rather gotten a veteran that I can use item than a useless hat.

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ONCE AGAIN, THE FIX FOR ALL DROP ISSUES IN VT2: just add a small increase in drop % for each time you do not get a drop (cosmetic for commendation, red for chests that can drop reds). For cosmetics, obviously please make it so u cant get duplicates (because WHY WOULD YOU LET THAT HAPPEN :stuck_out_tongue: ) and for reds, maybe allow duplicates after you have acquired 1 of each item that the class you opened chest on can get. For the actual math and % increase per non cosmetic/red chest opened, i am sure FS could figure out. But then this (in my humble and honest opinion) fixes everything for the RNG loot system (at least for unfair drop rates on ppl who should have them).


Just no, it should not be garanted with drops. It’s fine to have the system they have now. OR remove it completly. Making modifications to the current system would not help. And it’s seriously no big deal not to get cosmetics. They don’t help the player in any way, they are just a bonus.

Also, RNG is the most fair and unfair system you can have. It’s fair because everyone has the exact same chance to get loot. But it’s unfair if a new player gets 3 reds out of a single box.

TBH I would want the system to be removed completly, rebuild it from the ground up and remove the RNG because it just sucks.

Im ok with RNG since its not “got hit by lightning” chance.

Have you hear of that brand new “crafting” system? I heard it’s pretty damn cool. Not sure though - it is too fresh, and yet to be studied.


The way i see it, i read endless #'s of posts about people upset on the current red drop chances (pure RNG), so wouldn’t making a system that is a combination of RNG (normal % drop rate) and a SLIGHT (were talking if 3% normal drop, each additional non drop could be 3%+ .2 or somthing, not 3% + 3%(additional #) drop rate protection modifier, help to even the scales. Sure, people will always find a reason to complain, but I feel for those ppl w/ 300-500 hours and no reds, its sad :cry:

Asking FS (who are working their butts off nonstop as is) to consider throwing out their entire loot system just seems… unrealistic. slightly tweaking drop rates on the other hand, (this is coming from ABSOLUTELY NO KNOWLEDGE of programming) seems the easier and more immediate fix for the issue. That being said, i respect your right to your opinion and feelings :slight_smile:


Damn, this is the first time I see someone say it right. Many thanks, you made my day better.

They should make any change that they are making to cosmetics or loot drops retroactive. People who have already opened 300 commendation chests for example should be granted cosmetics automatically based on any new drop rates coming in future.


Nice idea. Too bad it is too late to add it to my suggestions list. But that would be a great motivator for players to come back. Don’t you wanna make a topic of it?

The fact we haven’t been showered with, “sorry, we rly screwed up” vaults kinda blows me away already. But then again, they know with the droprates being what they are, that would be an utterly hollow gesture. We just need better systems with more control.

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Well I think it might be a good solution to the problem, on the other hand (this is coming from ABSOLUTELY NO KNOWLEDGE of programming) I think going to be complicated to produce.

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