Drop rates after patch 1.0.5

Ya not scientific at all but anecdotally in my experience it seems that Ranald is a lot stingier and I haven’t gotten many Emp chests even with full books + loot die.

But the “increased drop rate” is a real slap in the face because it shows that Fatshark doesn’t understand the problem. The problem is unlucky people playing hundreds of hours of champ/legend and getting no reds at all. Increasing the drop rate doesn’t solve that problem much at all and just means that lucky people will get more reds than before

Think of it like flipping a coin. You have a “50% chance” of landing on heads or tails, but that doesn’t mean you will actually get a head every other flip when you actually flip the coin. There is a small chance that you will get tails 100 times in a row. And when you have a million players each of them flipping a coin 100 times, SOME of them are GUARANTEED to get tails every time and some will get heads every time.

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I Agree… I dont know why they didnt implement the questing from VT1 with a few improvements…

At this point I’d have to guess they are planning to sell us a new bounty board type system with a DLC, which IMO would just be sad.

Q&C was a free update in VT1. I see no reason to expect differently for VT2.

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I play with 3 other people every day for at least 3 hours every day. Among 4 of us we’ve got 1 red since patch. (Mostly play champion 3b2g runs)
On top of that it seems that recently the number of emperor chests has reduced significantly (as previous posters have noted)

This is exactly why you shouldn’t be quick to spread rumours of “hidden nerfs”. Like I said, people are just innately terrible at this kind of thing. The actual odds of flipping tails 100 times in a row? One to 1.3x10^30. This wouldn’t be “guaranteed”, or even especially probable, to have happened even if all 7 billion people alive today had been flipping coins all day long since the Big Bang.

People will get screwed/blessed by RNG, yes. But almost everybody will have up and downs, not just ups or downs. That’s just how RNG works.

Lastly, VT1 had Q&C, and pity timers on DLC drops, etc. to take the edge of the RNG loot system. We can expect more of that from VT2, I’m quite sure. Fatshark are still mostly concerned with core gameplay bugs, etc. at the moment, IMHO.

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Its just strange that almost everyone has those downs since the patch…

Based on anecdotes? Again: relying on anecdotes to estimate drop rates or changes in drop rates is so anti-scientific it hurts. You’ll need actual data, my friends. Even asking the question “does it seem like you’ve had less emperor’s chests lately” is a non-starter, as the mere suggestion will bias people’s recollections.

Data. There’s simply no substitute. Not even code-mining because code doesn’t always behave as expected because bugs.

EDIT: typo

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Then get me data! This is what im saying. Since FS does not publish any real info (insert your DATA) the only source you can get some kind of insight that what was changed in the game is user experience, and others feedback… And since im really not alone with this new phenomenon, that means something got f.cked up intentionally/unintentionally, resulting in significantly less emp chests, thanks to something since 1.0.5+, and the baseline RNG dependant loot system…

I’ll jump right on that! /s

My point is that you must treat the speculation you’re seeing about “hidden nerfs” as speculation if you want to be taken seriously.

No, it’s not. Here’s what you do: write down the type of chest you opened, what your hero level was when you opened it, and what you got from it. Repeat. Now get your friends to do the same thing. Pool the results and analyze them. This is what we did to work out the odds of getting a red on a roll of 6 in Cata for VT1.

Concluding that “something got f&#ked up” based on some anecdotes after all these posts… I guess my work here is done!

POSTER: INCORRIGIBLE.

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thats why i wrote this in feedback, and not as a bureport or something else…

3man premade all 30 all getting generals in 80+% of our game sessions in full runs on QM with 0-1-2 dices, as you can see in my original post. My main problem is not the content of the chest, but the chest itself.

Ever heard of different opinions? Nevermind… your work here is done. RNG got fixed, the game got patched, FS gave us details on the ingame interface, ALL thanks to one individual that fought to silence game feedback on forum with “unchallangable reasoning”, ah f.ck this why do i even waste my time on you…

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They might gate the new cosmetics and paintings and decorations and stuff behind a new Bounty Board system included only with the DLC.

This is just conjecture though. They might decide to suddenly sell loot boxes. Theres no evidence of that going to happen but who knows it might happen.

Reds have 0 impact on your grind. They are merely a cosmetic item with 0.2% better stats than Orange item.

I have no idea what sort of math you are using but if you want to get technical the real odds of flipping tails 100 times in a row are 1/2^100, or 7.9e-31. I should have used a smaller number of flips or a large number of people to justify the use of “guaranteed” but in the case of loot boxes the rng chance isn’t anywhere close to 50% either, that I can guarantee. With current drop rates of reds I certainly can guarantee there are players putting in an exorbitant amount of gametime with no reds, or no reds they actually use, to show for it, especially considering the large number of underpowered or useless weapons and the possibility of dupes.

And I didn’t spread rumors of “hidden nerfs”, I specifically said in my anecdotal experience Emperor’s boxes seem much more rare than before 1.05

But almost everybody will have up and downs, not just ups or downs. That’s just how RNG works.

“Almost everybody” isn’t everybody, as I said. The core problem is unlucky people putting in time and skill and not getting any rewards, or rewards they can use, to show for it. Doubling the drop rate from 1.5% to 3% doesn’t fix this problem. It is very easy to ensure that ABSOLUTELY everyone DOES have ups and downs not just ups or downs, so it is mindboggling why such a fix hasn’t yet been implemented.

Lastly, VT1 had Q&C, and pity timers on DLC drops, etc. to take the edge of the RNG loot system. We can expect more of that from VT2

Yeah again that is part of my point, VT1 already had this stuff, so why in the hell is VT2 lacking stuff VT1 already had figured out? It was either a conscious decision to not include it thinking we’d enjoy the RNG fiesta more, or they’re planning on tying future reds/Cosmetics/Pictures to a Q&C system that will require DLC purchase, or the alternative that Fatshark simply sold us a game that was nowhere near ready for release and won’t get around to implementing features that were in the first game for another few months. Neither option is particularly flattering.

No they certainly have an impact on my “grind”. If I want to have fun I play with my friends I know are competent. If I’m going to spend time helping out randoms in Legend or lvl 15s queuing into Champion there better be some treasure at the end of that rainbow or it isn’t worth the hassle of trying to teach strangers simple gameplay such as “Don’t run off by yourself” and “Pick up these items” and “Stop shooting me Sienna”.

Most importantly, having reds is about having something to show off to others for the time and skill you’ve invested in the game. And it is about not needing to grind hundreds of green dust to get perfect rolls on Orange items to hit breakpoints for Legend.

If reds don’t matter to you then why don’t you advocate for them to be removed completely (Hint: it is because they do matter to you)

I don’t think they will sell loot boxes. But at this point I do expect them to require you to buy the DLC to have access to whatever future cosmetics/reds/paintings/etc they come up with, and that the DLC will have something similar to the V1 Bounty Board that makes obtaining these items more reasonable and not strictly based on RNG chests.

I wouldn’t necssarily object to this actually (except for paintings originally being promised for the base game iirc). But I would still like a more reliable way to obtain the reds that are already in the base game.

Why do you expect them to? They said the next cosmetics and skins would be free. You have made up this DLC thing and stuck with it.

Also reds not mattering to you doesn’t mean you want them removed from the game. You can have one without the other.

Nice try.

This is your glaring fail that you can’t wish or bluster away. The odds I provided were indeed wrong, but you might note though that they were wrong in that they were too generous by an order of magnitude. My point, which is that you (and me, and everyone else) are terrible at estimating drop rates and should therefore be slow to read anything into their anecdotes, still stands.

To hammer the point home – this is exactly the problem. We all should be careful with probabilities, but we don’t tend to be. We tend to turn to our anedotes instead and take them seriously instead of treating them like quasi-jokes. What I told OP was that he had slim evidence of a “hidden nerf”. Agree or disagree?

Define “fix”. It would change the odds of people being truly unlucky (getting 0 reds) drastically. It would not make it impossible to be unlucky, no. You’ll notice that I addressed that point in my first reply to you. I’m not arguing that the current drop rate or loot system is perfect, I’m arguing that anecdotes are borderline useless for evaluating drop rates.

If you want my honest opinion, it’s C) “Fatshark won’t get around to implementing features that were in the first game for a while, yet”. I don’t think I can agree that it was “nowhere near ready for release”, but I agree that it came out lacking a lot of the polish we’d come to enjoy in VT1.

Cool story.
They only matter beacuse you think they do.
An Orange item with 5%crit and 18% crit power vs Red with 5% crit and 20% crit power is not a huge increase.

You dont need reds to do Legend.

Why not join the Fatshark Discord https://discord.gg/K6gyMpu