The Coinflip analogy: why simply increasing the drop rate doesn't address the core problem with Red drops

[AgainPyromancer]

Nice try.

@KrazyKruber

when you have a million players each of them flipping a coin 100 times, SOME of them are GUARANTEED to get tails every time and some will get heads every time.

This is your glaring fail that you can’t wish or bluster away. The odds I provided were indeed wrong, but you might note though that they were wrong in that they were too generous by an order of magnitude. My point, which is that you (and me, and everyone else) are terrible at estimating drop rates and should therefore be slow to read anything into their anecdotes, still stands.

@KrazyKruber

I should have used a smaller number of flips or a large number of people to justify the use of “guaranteed”

To hammer the point home – this is exactly the problem. We all should be careful with probabilities, but we don’t tend to be. We tend to turn to our anedotes instead and take them seriously instead of treating them like quasi-jokes. What I told OP was that he had slim evidence of a “hidden nerf”. Agree or disagree?

@KrazyKruber

Doubling the drop rate from 1.5% to 3% doesn’t fix this problem.

Define “fix”. It would change the odds of people being truly unlucky (getting 0 reds) drastically. It would not make it impossible to be unlucky, no. You’ll notice that I addressed that point in my first reply to you. I’m not arguing that the current drop rate or loot system is perfect, I’m arguing that anecdotes are borderline useless for evaluating drop rates.

@KrazyKruber

VT1 already had this stuff, so why in the hell is VT2 lacking stuff VT1 already had figured out? It was either a conscious decision to not include it thinking we’d enjoy the RNG fiesta more, or they’re planning on tying future reds/Cosmetics/Pictures to a Q&C system that will require DLC purchase, or the alternative that Fatshark simply sold us a game that was nowhere near ready for release and won’t get around to implementing features that were in the first game for another few months.

If you want my honest opinion, it’s C) “Fatshark won’t get around to implementing features that were in the first game for a while, yet”. I don’t think I can agree that it was “nowhere near ready for release”, but I agree that it came out lacking a lot of the polish we’d come to enjoy in VT1.