How does your RNG works FS?

Got 4 emp vaults and opened them quite fast at the same time.

4 Red´s - 4 Charms… I´ve got no problem with duplicates, since i don´t really care about loot, but how got that calculated? Time? Date?

AFAIK each item slot has an equal chance of dropping. Let’s assume you would get upset over any of the 3 jewellery slots, so the chances for this happening are 60% * 20%^3 (assuming anything close to true randomness is used), if my probabilities are not completely rusted. So for any series of 4 reds there’s a about .5% chance you’ll come here to complain about RNG. I’d guess that’s how their RNG works.

The RNG is manipulable that way. Been preaching that for a looooong time. Open vaults in bulk if you want reds.

I normally open my vaults / comm chests at the end of the day on any career. It already felt quite normal. Sometimes i got reds, sometimes not, sometimes 2 in 1 chest, sometimes nothing in 20 chests…
Mostly i got 1 red in my first 3 chests of a day.

This thing yesterday was like wtf!? 4 Vaults, 4 Red´s, 4 Charms… My friend opened 2 generals and got 2 red hagbane´s. He never got even one before.

Luck / bad luck? Or does the game really says like “every red in the next 2 minutes will be a charm/hagbane, whatever”.

I have been opening in bulk since… a long time and can confirm this back to back dropping happens even for weapons, to the point where I could predict what would drop next. Like I have stated elsewhere, I got rapier and crossbow from the same vault one, opened two more, got another rapier and crossbow from same vault. I think it has something to do with the loot-server backend communcation. I mean, there were times when you crafted too fast, you got backend-errors and the game closed. My current assumption is that the loot server determines “drop item type x”, but it doesn’t update that information in that you already have the item, so when you open more boxes, it will give you the same over and over again until it realizes you have the item.
Has hapened so often with weapons that to me that there is definitely something not working as it should.

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Never had it till yesterday.

I opened all my stuff on sienna 2 or 3 dayys ago. Got 1 conflag, 1 dagger, 1 mace, 1 beam and i think 1 charm or necklace. It´s the same i do everyday, when i´ve time to play this game. (Didn´t had dagger/beam and especially that mace before)

So well yeah… seems to be broken sometimes.

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When I say I open in bulk, I mean something like opening 15+ vaults at once. It doesn’t happen all the time, but often enough that makes me assume there is something fishy going on with the back-end servers. Would make sense, simply because server communication is susceptible to latency… which makes me wonder if it can be forced by simply having a bad or good ping ^^.

The RNG does not care about previous openings, the RNG is always the same when opening a chest. It’s the same thing when flipping a coin, you always, ALWAYS have 50% of getting it right, the previous tosses does not matter. When it comes to RNG, grouping is a normal thing. If you roll a random number between 1 and 10, 9-4-2-1-3-6-5-7-8 is random but since everytime you roll you have an equal chance to get a number it’s more likely you get a pattern like 9-9-2-3-4-4-1-2-5-6, repeating numbers is normal. And to be honest, I think the problem with FS RNG is the same as with Apples ipod shuffle (https://www.daxthink.com/think/2017/2/27/apple-made-itunes-shuffle-less-random-to-make-it-more-random), it’s too random, it’s too good, which makes it feel less random.

Grouping is not what is happening, though. But I’ve been through this enough. I’ve been keeping track of my drops for a long time and the patterns are very consistent. Your analogy with flipping a coin isn’t appropriate because it disregards how RNG in computer programs work. There is really no “true rng”, it is either by a seed or by calculating it’s values derived from other values.
Look into video game speedrunners and how many games have exploitable RNG, because the values the randomness is generated from can be consistently manipulated so it results in a certain outcome.
Besides, I am not claiming that the “RNG” is per se not working as intended. I am suggesting that there is something happening in the process of back-end communication with the “loot server” that determines the drop. Considering the insane amount of issues we all had to suffer through since launch with back-end errors dropping us out of the game, I don’t find it that outlandish to at least investigate the possibility of something not working as it should.

Grouping IS what’s happening. People are complaning about getting 2-3 necklaces in a row, that’s grouping.
Still don’t think there’s any correlation to opening 1 or 15 boxes at the same time. For your method to work you have to consider that they run the RNG continually after opening a box, I don’t think they do that. Most likely it runs when opening a box and then stops and resets for the next box.

I don’t have a dog in this debate, but you have to admit that both options (merely grouping vs. grouping + some other mechanism) are possible. You can point out that people are prone to mistake grouping for patterns without insisting that this is the only possible explanation.

As Licious-D has said, RNG fails to be sufficiently random all the time in computer science. In addition to that there could be bugs in the item allocation process leading to, for example, the same result being held in a buffer and accessed twice for a client instead of only once.

Or it could be working as intended. Without a statement from FS it’s all speculations and a waste of time to even bring up.

Care to provide this data?

What I see here is people posting about an occurrence with prob. of .5% as a statistical anomaly. Would be nice to see if there is data indicating that there’s actually something wrong.

“It could be” is the proper framing. “It is” is where you went wrong.

Or: data. We haven’t seen any, yet. But a statement from FS isn’t the only way forwards. The Vermintide community has figured out many of the game’s quirks (e.g. red drop rates) without any help from FS. It’s also caught all kinds of squirrely bugs that FS didn’t even know they had.

TL;DR don’t be too quick to dismiss reports of weird game behaviour as mere RNG, even when that’s still the most likely explanation.

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Trying to figure out RNG without understanding how the system actually works becomes pointless. It could work for 80-90% but you could still be completly wrong. Without getting the correct information about how the system works, which you won’t get without talking to the developers or datamining the RNG algorithm will just end in theories or conspiracies, as we can see with some users who honestly think that the system is picking out their accounts not giving them reds.

I’ve seen people cheating, getting 1000 boxes, opening them to try to figure out the pattern and what have the come up with? That it’s random…

I fail to see the problem with the RNG system, it’s both fair and unfair. Some people get reds all the time, some don’t. The box system is not the problem. The problem is that there are no other ways of getting reds outside of opening boxes.

Well, no. Performing statistical analysis on data sets to determine whether they’re random or not is basic science. With a large enough data set it’s very easy to say with confidence whether there are “weird patterns” or not. In fact, statistical analysis > code-mining, because results are results while code-mining is always an incomplete account of what’s really going on (e.g. yes, you called a RNG function but where did the random seed come from?).

Well, they’d get good drop-rate estimates, for one thing. But yeah, teasing apart weak mechanistic signals amid tons of RNG is very hard. You need data and skills. That doesn’t make it futile.

This topic isn’t about RNG being good or bad. It’s questioning whether their RNG is working as intended or not (i.e. RNG enough).

Again: the most likely explanation for these weird patterns is simple grouping. I agree. But that doesn’t mean it’s the correct one.

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