1550+ hours into the game, nearly a thousand legend grade chests and…

I have never seen a red long bow for waystalker.

Does this even exist?

Maybe an option to trade skins or something? Cause RNG or no RNG it shouldn’t be this ludicrous.

1550+ hours into the game, nearly a thousand legend grade chests and…

I have never seen a red long bow for waystalker.

Does this even exist?

Maybe an option to trade skins or something? Cause RNG or no RNG it shouldn’t be this ludicrous.

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Holy shít*

You actually opened all those boxes on WS and did not get a red longbow?

I have seen people with bad luck in this system but your case takes the cake.

I have not opened any chests in a very long time, but from what I’ve heard thus far, it feels like the drop chances of red items went down quite a bit.

Is it true?

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I still open my chests and I can’t really say I’ve noticed a reduction to droprates, but it seems some reds are more rare than others (or it’s just Ranald being Ranald).

I recieved one of the red xswords probably more than ten times before I finally got the second one. Same with most other weapons.

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As far as I know drop chances haven’t changed in a loooooong time, and the last (and only) time they were changed was an *improvement*, around way back when we had the first Khorne event.

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It’s just a question of randomness, unfortunately.

There are a lot of different items in the game, and each one can be dropped as a Veteran version (with a chance that’s not that high to begin with). When you only have a couple of different ones, the chance of getting a new one is relatively high, but surprisingly soon the chance of getting a copy of an existing one gets to over 50%. When you’re down to the last couple of items, the chance of getting them is very, very low - even if the chance of getting *any* red item is still the same.

While I don’t know exactly how the whole system works, it looks like the method of choosing what item appears doesn’t help. It seems to me that the game chooses the item slot first, then what exact item it is. Which would mean that while there’s a lot more variance in weapons (at the very least, each character has their own set while jewellery can be used by anyone), you receive less of them. This, if true, makes getting those last few weapons even more of a chore.

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I have almost 2.2k hours and recently got my first red sienna dagger (of 3) and got no red sword and shield, so yes.

I’m also still missing 3 non-red illusions, so there’s that.

I would say reds drops even more than 1.6 version. Ranald just hates you

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I noticed that a lot of people has red weapons in x10 but they can’t find the last missing red… maybe a coincidence… maybe, when you miss only one red, its % becomes lower.

The percentages to get a single specific red are really really really small. Situations where people have several of one weapon and none of another fit with the odds when loot is determined by pure small chance RNG.

That’s why this system is a bad one as well, basically. I’m glad FS are making steps to distribute loot in betters ways like with challenges and the Emporium.

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Unlikely to be lower, just terrible luck.

Assuming you have X% chance of a red dropping, you then have to determine which slot it drops for (I presume this is why we always find so many trinkets/baubles: they do a slot-check first and 60% of our slots are trinkets… IDK for sure, but my drop rates check out).

Then, you have an (X/5) % chance of the item being for the correct slot. But, that slot has an average of… 5 different options, let’s say? More options is worse.

So now you have an (X/25) % chance of getting the read weapon you want. If the average drop-rate of a red is 7%, you’re not looking at very good odds… 0.28%.

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Well I don’t have a red Longbow either.

2 Daggers, 3 2h swords, 2 spears, 2 shortbows, 1 hagbane, 1 Sw+Dagger, 1 Dual Sword, 2 1h Swords, and about 100 charms. But no long bow. Or Bardin 2h hammer. Or Sienna Flame Sword. Or… the list goes on.

This is not unusual. RNG sucks donkey balls.

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Well you can always craft a red long bow and buy the missing illusion/skin from the Emporium.

Or just apply a non red skin to your newly crafted long bow.

Heck most of the non red illusions look way better than the stupid glowy ones.

Some of the non glowy skins are fantastic.

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As myself, @TmanDW and @Torantolis pointed out, it’s just a property of probabilities. To simplify things, think of it as a game of dice where you win if you get a result you haven’t got before. Rolling one die, you win your first roll automatically. On your second roll, you have 5/6 chance of winning and 1/6 of losing. When you’ve won five times, your chance of winning is only 1/6 and it’s 5/6 to lose.

In-game it’s a lot worse as the chances are generally lower, though the maths stay the same. Torantolis showed the maths; we seem to be getting on average one Veteran-quality item in 4 to 5 Emp Vaults and Kerillian has four ranged weapons so the chance hitting the right one there is 1/4 (though that part is likely to change for the worse if you want a particular Illusion, as most weapons have two or three of them). The game apparently checking for slot first skews a lot of these calculations, as the result ends up being different for each Hero’s melee *and* ranged weapons. The variance is from four weapons in Markus’s and Kerillian’s ranged slot, to eight in Markus’s and Bardin’s melee slot. So Kerillian’s ranged has the best chance of getting everything - and the chances still screw us over.

When you start out, any red is good, so you “win” no matter which one you get. After you have half of them already, you start finding more duplicates than new ones (as you have a 50% chance of “winning” - if you get the slot and quality right). And when you’re at the last couple of items (even considering that you may want a duplicate or two for some items), the chance of “winning” gets low indeed.

And of course, you need to remember that a certain chance of getting something doesn’t mean that you need at least or at most that many rolls. It means that *on average* you need that many rolls to get at least one of that item. For every one who gets it on their first roll and five duplicates afterwards 'til the expected average of rolls is filled, there’s another who needs to roll six times as much to get even one. Averages, randomness and probabilities always favor some people and screw over others - they’re both the most and the least fair method of decision.

Oh, yeah, and another (edited-in) reminder/notifier: The human brain is wired to recognise patterns easily. Actual randomness screws with this badly, and as such we (as a species) are bad at probabilities. You really have to consciously learn about them, and to keep those things in mind, to deal with probabilities and randomness well. Not everything has a pattern (and a good RNG is patternless), but we still tend to find them even if they really don’t exist. That’s an urge you have to consciously resist when dealing with randomness. (It can be useful, though, and wouldn’t have evolved to us if it wasn’t. There has been some anecdotal evidence that suggest something might be wonky with the RNG in the game, but it’s still anecdotal, it’s been a while since any of it popped up, and it would require extensive, organised testing from a bunch of users to prove either way.)

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^

This.

This applies to anything where you want to touch each thing once; there was a thread earlier these past weeks about RNG on playing each map for achievements through QP and it’s the same premise. Long-story short is that RNG is, possibly, the worst system for actually progressing.

Vermintide’s approach to finding weapons is devilishly annoying to the point where I’ve stopped wanting Veteran weapons… they’re not worth my time any more. Just getting an Orange weapon with nearly maximum stats is faster (despite the crafting system fighting you tooth and nail with the same damn RNG) and, ultimately, does the same thing.

However, it’s not to say that RNG (or, rather, things that “seem” to have RNG) is strictly evil. Applying it to non-core gameplay mechanics can be great and even immersive.

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they should just increase the chance for red drops on cataclysm difficulty. why is cataclysm the only difficulty that has the same drop chance than the previous difficulty. this way almost no one wants to do cata book runs. even though they are way more interesting then legend. but people grind legend all the time to get their reds.

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Don’t necropost, and no cata is specifically made to have same as legend reward.

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Weird, this forum usually automatically locks any threads that don’t get a reply in like 2 weeks or something.

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Certain threads get left open. I thought it was directly correlated to the category they were dropped in, but I suppose I haven’t been keeping track for some time. As I recall, it’s either Feedback or the Lounge that can get left open nearly indefinitely while all other categories see closure after one full week of 0 activity.

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The problem isn’t the droprate of reds per say but, really, that we still get dupes. Necklaces, charms and trinkets I understand. Makes sense to get dupes of them. But I really don’t need two red pickaxes when it’s the only red melee I have for Bardin, you know?

Over two years since release and red dupes are still a thing. It’s a bit ridiculous.

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