Let’s talk about the crafting odds... or at least an idea of what they are

If I was living near you, I would say that we can drink together…
We are agree. :grinning:

Great!

I correct that tomorrow (in the evening, I have a deadline for my work)

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You two should now kiss.

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Their love cannot be contained.

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Just assume the cow is perfectly spherical.

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The mitochondria is the power house of the cell. Wait wrong subject.

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Spreadsheets has been actualized.

Thanks @flawless to have pointed the error.
This has increased the odds a lot… especially the chances to get a perfect weapon :grinning:

And again, because there are no proper mitigation systems for the RNG, you can either be very lucky and get it straight away or be unlucky and still never get it. Again again, pulling more times is not RNG mitigation.

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Off course you can be lucky…
I was yesterday… I have got a perfect Thunderhammer (550-after rebless refine, this is a perfect TH).

But collecting datas gives a general picture of the odds to obtain something. Being lucky it is 1 time.
Here this is not the probabilities, for this you would need to check the code, interpret it and calculate the real odds. But, this gives an idea of the chances you have when you craft a weapon (again 375+, not 370, not 360+, only 375+…).

So you can be lucky, you can be unlucky. But, normally, you have average chances to get something good.

I say normally cause there are people in the world that are always unlucky… but let’s be honest, if you are always unlucky, you cannot go to damnation cause you will always wipe (yes I have seen a documentary about someone unlucky every days of its life… everything that can turn bad, becomes a mess).
If you are this sort of guy, sure DT is not for you with all this RNG…

And again, I don’t try to convince you of… of what? I just wanted to show the odds (or an idea of them) to players. Several here have not realized that quality has an impact on the odds to get something good. I remember a discussion here where someone told me that it was not proven.
Well, I did not prove that you have better chances to get higher perk/blessing with a higher quality weapon, but I think that everybody here knows that you don’t get close to 60% of T4 blessing when crafting at orange a weapon with a 300 modifiers. If someone wants to verify that, I let him burn his plasteel to craft garbage weapon to confirm, or infirm, that.
And we yet see players that try to get their weapons at Brunt… But Brunt is a total failure and needs something to be done to mitigate the atrocious RNG fest.
For the crafting part, the mitigation is the quality of the weapon.

It’s more to highlight that the entire crafting system, despite changes, from top to bottom is still a horrible experience. It’s a badly and barely designed system, with systems that are bandaids or randomly thrown together, at best it’s a placeholder, at worst it’s deliberately player hostile. Knowing the odds doesn’t change that.

Mitigation that relies on RNG is not mitigation.

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But not wanting to take that into account facts and repeating same error again and again… is stupidity (off course, when you know it).
Actually, a lot of players did not know that the quality of a weapon has an impact on the odds to get great weapons. So, the thread could be useful for new players or actual players that did not realize that (and there are here and elsewhere (seen one on reddit))

I don’t discuss the system. You know what I think, or you should by now. I don’t like RNG, I would have preferred a game without any RNG, but we have RNG and it seems they won’t change that. So, either you stop to play the game, or you adapt to the game system.
Using Brunt is seriously dumb. I said it a lot of times, Brunt is a major failure. Great idea, poorly implemented.
But if you buy from the shop, you can choose what you buy (or not buy). You cannot choose what will appear, and that’s exactly the entire problem actually cause you cannot rely on Brunt.
I will agree that, waiting to something to spawn in a shop, is hazardous and that this is a terrible problem (and a poor game design). However, once you find a good base weapon, odds are not so terrible.

You have no control what appears at the shop. That’s RNG too. Even worse is that it is time locked with no way to bypass or refresh the shop apart from waiting.

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I said it… that’s the problem
We agree on this.

And this is a BIG problem. As I said, yesterday I have got a perfect TH (380 - T4 flak armored - T4 unyielding - T4 slaughterer - T4 Thrust).
Crafted it cause it was in the shop… however, this is not what I actually looking for. I want an ironheilm, I need a better helbore, I want a better agri shotgun etc.
But, there was none of them… so I crafted the TH.

This is not what I wanted and this is annoying to wait to get a good base weapon. As I said, if you read what I wrote, I totally agree that shops / Brunt are a major failure.
Lot of things can be implemented to mitigate RNG:

  • a way to refresh the shops
  • a possibility to increase the quaality of a weeapon bought at Brunt
  • a mitigation in Brunt that would mitigate the odds to get something low quality
    etc.

Really there are lot of solutions here. But the current system to find a good base weapon is a major failure.

Sidenote: I said it so many times that there is a problem to find a good base weapon that I cannot count them… so, no need to try to explain me there is a problem… 5 months I say it

Yes, I agree that acquisition is a major pain point in the itemisation, I am mainly taking issue with your idea that having shifting odds on getting T4 when consecrating on highly rated items as being any sort of RNG mitigation, when getting to that point is RNG in the first place. You have acknowledged that issue, but you do kinda just ignore it when you try to make your points on other aspects of the itemisation.

For the shifting odds as item rating increases, it’s great that someone in Fatshark somewhere put some thought into that, but it still comes crashing down when the itemisation is as disjointed as it is. It’s like the different people/teams doing different parts of the itemisation either:
a. never talked to each other,
b. never looked at the system as a whole,
c. are being forced to implement things this way,
d. never tried running through it like a normal player would, or,
e. all of the above.

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Updated a last time…

Seems that this numbers are somewhat close to the chances to get a T4 perk/blessing

  • at green: 25%
  • at blue: 20%
  • at purple: 25%
  • at orange: 60%

Problem is… Brunt

No, the problem is the entire system. Brunt is, itself, a bandaid. Why on earth are you calling a bandaid the problem when in reality the whole problem is that the bandaid cannot adequately cover for a problem as large and all-encompassing as the itemization as a whole?

It’s not Brunt. It’s not any one facet of this awful crafting system, especially when most of these facets are post-release bandaids meant to mitigate how overwhelmingly awful the crafting system is. The problem is the whole system. It’s the whole thing. They could tear it out and replace it with nothing and the game would improve.

Brunt’s is a problem but only because it’s a poorly tuned and inadequate bandaid stuck on top of a fundamentally frustrating system. Having a better bandaid would be nice, but when the solution involves “Let’s allow our players to bypass as much of our system as possible,” then the system is the real problem and should be excised.

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You have the absolute right to think that…

The problem is that they don’t want to recode the entire system. So what now? we keep this system and we hope that one day they will change entirely the system? and if they don’t?

Let’s say it, odds are decent if you have a good base weapon. However, finding a good base weapon is a problem cause you need to wait that shops propose you one good enough or you have to burn lot of money.
That’s why, I think that Brunt shop is the problem.

My reasonning is:
1.) they don’t want to rewrite the crafting system. This means that we have to adapt to the system
2.) so, if they don’t change the system, what can they do to make the system somewhat acceptable? When checking the stats I published here, I would say that you can get pretty excellent weapons if you have a good base weapon. However, nothing is made to permit us to get such good base weapon.
3.) Considering that Brunt is the place to find base weapon, and that it is an enormous failure, I would like that they fix Brunt shop to permits this feature to fulfill its role.

Alternative is hoping for a total rewrite, something that could never come or, if it comes, will happen much later… By this time, I would like to be able to find weapons with an other way than waiting that the shops propose me one of them with good distribution and modifiers rating.

Sidenote: I also think that we need the possibility to dismantle our weapons to get materials, the possibility to buy/sell/exchange materials, cost to craft should be again reduced or/and rewards increased for missions.

And there’s where you keep getting stuck in your conversations here, Ralendil, on these two points. We’ll call them 1A and 1B for simplicity, and hopefully we can have a conversation about them, and also why what I’m about to lay out might entirely invalidate points 2 and 3 that you’re laying out here.

Let’s lay them out in sequence so we can examine them more fully.

1A.) They don’t want to rewrite the crafting system.

There’s absolutely no basis behind this statement. Fatshark has proven, with this upcoming patch, that they are willing to delay key features and progression in order to rip out old systems and replace them with entirely new ones which cleave significantly closer to their original design goals. It’s been postulated pretty effectively at this point that most of what Darktide is now is not the game these devs wanted to make, and is instead the game they had to release when they did. Considering how silent they were during the run up to the skill tree announcement, there’s absolutely zero indication that they want this system and won’t replace it in the future.

1b.) That means we have to adapt to the system.

No, we don’t. We can just play another game, or go outside, or do literally anything else. And most of us have done something else, and will contonue to do so while we wait to see of Darktide becomes something worth our time, because right now - even with these skill trees - a sizeable portion of us haven’t and won’t come back to give Fatshark our time and money until we think it’s worth that much, and we’ll probably tell other people about the other games we’re playing instead.

You have decided to adapt to that system, Ralendil, while many of us either do so incredibly begrudgingly or not at all. That’s entirely fine, I’m not calling it a poor decision, the parts of Darktide that are good are really good and clearly you greatly enjoy the parts of this game that are really good. Darktide is worth your time and I truly, very much, wish you the best of it because the rest of us want it to be good too, that’s what we’re all doing here. But every page long argument I see you make in these threads is based around the idea that we must interact with this design as-is.

No, my friend. We don’t.

And that’s why points 2 and 3 don’t matter.

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Yeah I don’t know why he keeps postulating that we have to accept Darktide’s current state as is and adapt to it. I haven’t touched Darktide since that awful “Beta” experience. If Fatshark wants its players back they know what to do. Otherwise they better get used to subpar numbers from steam players. Let’s hope those low numbers are sustainable for them.

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Just you wait, I’ll eventually get around to collecting a non-trivial amount of samples!

I’ll also have you know that two of those (23 so far) garbage weapons unlocked Power Cycler IV and Slaughterer IV for me :smirk:

I did not say that
I said that:
a.) you can wait
b.) you can adapt and point in the system what obviously need a fix

You choose to wait… fine. By this time, I would like a fix for Brunt.