Let’s talk about the crafting odds... or at least an idea of what they are

[Ralendil]

@BFCInsomnia

Totally arbitrary and those numbers seem way off.

@BFCInsomnia

I don’t quite understand why we are pointing fingers at one or the other aspect of the RNG lasagna, the combination of all of it is what makes the system so insufferable. The whole thing needs to be ripped out and comletely reworked.

Not arbitrary… statistics from inputs.
In fact several have claimed that we had 25% of chances to get a T1 blessing, at orange. But I never found a T2 blessing when consecrating at orange, I believe it can happen, but this is a relative rare situation.
This is what made me to do this work… cause there was people that were claiming that you had same chances to get a T1 blessing than getting a T4 blessing.

Also, several also denied that the quality of a weapon as an impact of the odds to get a T4 blessing.

And there was someone that said that the odds I presented were false cause we were not taking into consideration the tier we obtain. That was true and I had explained that we needed the code behind to calculate the odds, or use the brute force method (the one I used here). As I said, the brute force method has its flaws. The main one is that you need a lot of datas to get something accurate. But, now, we can have an idea of the odds to get a good weapon.

@BFCInsomnia

The two big aspects of crafting and item acqusition that make it so we are talking of odds to begin with are: random weapon stats (and how unlikely it is to get the combination you want / the inability to modify them at all) and the crafting locks (the inability to freely modify all aspects of our items).

Obviously, not. The OP (me) wanted to talk about the odds to get a good weapon with a 375+ modifiers.
About item acquisition, nothing new here… 5 months I say that Brunt needs something to be done. I have even said it 3 times in my 2 posts.

@BFCInsomnia

All of this to say that ALL OF THIS DOESN’T MATTER since FS will not provide us with any actual odds, eventhough they should be forced to release all these gambling odds.

@BFCInsomnia

I honestly don’t care for work arounds and RNG mitigation, we should be asking FS to do better and come up with something that requires neither.

Already discussed a lot… they don’t want to rework entirely the system (and tbh, I prefer that they give us content instead of perpetually rework a system). I said it numerous times, I hate RNG. I would have preferred a system without any RNG at all.
But I think you have seen that, in 6 months, they have not changed their mind.
So, I prefer pointing what is obviously broken in the current system and needs to be fixed, instead of waiting something that may never happen. Cause if it never happen, the problems I see in game will stay forever.

@Flawless

Pretty sure they do.
Have you ever rolled T4 perks or blessings on a 200 modifier weapon?

My bad. I have read too fast…
Yes obviously modifiers have a direct impact.
What I wondered is, does getting a T4 blessing or a T4 perk can increase the odds to get a T4 blessing or T4 perk when crafting again the weapon to an higher consecration level?
On this point, I doubt it impacts the odds considering what I collected. However, it needs more testing as several times I have seen weapons chaining T4 perks / blessings (72-73-74,. 94, 95, 99, 102). So not so sure of that…

But, for modifiers, I am certain that it impacts the odds.
Even at 369, I am pretty sure that you get a lot less chances to get a T4 blessing (need to be verified, I let that to someone else, crafting 100 weapons takes time, and I want to play).