GREEN DUST (Yet another post)

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Well I could call it unlucky, since I got less red Weapons.
And since some point (I believe it depends on level or avarage weapon power) I usualy get high %'s by default.

Sure, you are right. But usualy you don’t need it to be all maximum values, so why reroll it hundreds of times?

Anyways I get your point and don’t argue with it. Just wondering.
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I wouldnt call multiple red trinkets unlucky, ive only gotten one red so far from 200 hours and could easily not get another anytime soon.
Some people are at 300/400 hours and still have no reds at all let alone a weapon.
Reds shouldn’t really be an argument against wanting to roll perfect stats since drop rates are as rng influenced as rerolling can be.

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I seem to be on that path, at about 230 hours now and still not a red (or cosmetic) to speak of :frowning:

I haven’t ran out of green dust, mostly because after seeing all the posts about it on here and the rough-edges state of the game I am waiting to do any serious experiementing until things are a big more polished. Really the only career I spent a lot to kit out was my Shade, and just that one ate a lot of dust (I think I’m sitting at about 80 green).

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I’m running with a similar scenario. 200 green dust but only because I’m saving it after reading about all of the problems its causing.

I can easily see how it’ll be a problem sooner rather than later (for me), barely rerolled anything apart from what i felt i had to, let alone trying to experiment with different setups/testing.

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Anyway, 4 charms are more usefull then my 7 trinkets :rofl:

Because sometimes I can’t get needed values in hudred rolls. For example, few days ago I tried to get 20 hp 30 -block cost on my red necklace, I used about 50 rolls and didn’t get it. And it’s just a stat combo with a garanteed rolls I coudn’t get at all. I didn’t mean “I need to spend tonns of dust to get perfect rolls”, coz oftenly I don’t need perfect rolls, but if I need 7.5% roll, I wouldn’t be satisfied with 7%, and I will spend more dust to get it.

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Yep, I once spent 150 greens trying to get skaven + armor on my charm, of ANY strength. Didn’t get it. Neither was it on any of my 40 charms.

Seems some people don’t understand what true RNG really means.

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i did have 400-500 greens but all it takes is 3-6 reds and bless RNG to fk up all ur green dust

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It’s about 50 green dust for one particular property combination. You might need double or triple to reroll bad values of course.

So yes, your evaluation is more or less precise.

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And that’s pretty much best case what one can expect. Lots of us have blown hundreds on one piece of gear w/o even seeing the right property combo.

But we’ve also been getting fast rolls, or even good stats from the start. These things kinda balance each other out.

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Kinda, but it only takes one case of bad luck to throw the whole thing totally out of whack if you know what I mean. Best case, in extremely rare instances, you may not need to spend any dust on something but if you wind up blowing every bit of dust you have, you’re pooched from then on. The latter seems like a much more common occurrence.

It’s the “finite” supply that’s the issue in this sort of consideration.

No, it doesn’t work like that. Average means average. I even have a Java program to prove that.

Compile and see for yourself.

There is also math formulas, that prove my point, but who trusts math nowadays?

Not saying your average is wrong, saying all it takes is for someone to have below average luck once for the entire evaluation to go out the window from a practical standpoint, which is objectively accurate. Yes, the average still holds but the part we care about, getting the properties we want in a balanced, timely manner, is effectively lost to us as players. We get a lump sum of greens up until a certain point then the supply slows to an infinitesimal trickle. Get pwnt on your first item? GG you’re screwed until they implement a fix. Most of us who’ve got everything leveled feel this, some just earlier than others.

If supply was steady, we’d all come out average in the long haul but since the supply is effectively limited, some of us just hit an asymptote (more figuratively than literally, since the normal model kinda just doesn’t exist for that person anymore in a meaningful way) and can’t do anything without either grinding low book speed runs or waiting dozens of hours to hopefully get lucky in commendation chests for green dust. I’m guessing this describes most of us veterans at this point.

To simplify, knowing it’s going to take you ~50 rolls on average to get what you’re after stops meaning anything once you don’t get dust anymore.

There is a law of large numbers, and even 1k dust is big anough sample to fall into it. There is of course gonna be deviation, but it’s gonna be like 70 per roll at worst.

The supply doesn’t matter at all, only the number of dust. If you get 1k green dust before leveling all the characters, that’s still 1k green dust, and you still can roll stats for 18 weapons on average and 14 worst case.

That statement is wrong! Example: you have 1 million green dust. Do you care about its income anymore? K, 1 million is exaggeration of course, but take 3k for example. Even 3k dust is more than enough for average player needs. Top players might need 6k or so, but that’s it. You don’t need any more of it afterwards.

I’m not sure where you’re getting that worst case from. If it’s a worst-case average, sure, but there’s no check or balance to guarantee we get the roll we want in a manner that fits the model. With infinite samples, yes, it should average out to that but that’s probably the kinda thinking that led to this terrible system in the first place. On paper, pure RNG systems seem ok cuz it’s like “oh, worst case is x? That doesn’t seem so bad.” But that neglects the outliers and with how little dust we have relative to how much we need, on average, it’s not hard to become an outlier. There’s very little wiggle room. I was extremely lucky in that I got 2-3 perfect roll items just as raw drops w/o having to touch them but it also took me ~400 dust to get a single item and despite my early luck I still hit the “you’re SOL until this gets fixed” category well before gearing up everything I needed.

Edit: There’s also the human factor. Ie. there’s no warning that the green dust gravy train is coming to an end so it probably caught/catches a lot of people off guard.

Turns out you’re partially right. I quickly wrote another program to test this, and it turns out that some people might end up needing 200 dust or so for rolling 1 item on average.

It’s not gonna be impossible to roll what you need thanks to law of large numbers, and if you forfeit one of the stats you might be completely fine, but still these numbers are crazy. The unluck is also gonna decrease the more dust you gonna farm (again large numbers), but getting even 1k green dust will require hundreds of hours.

Program code:

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Yeah exactly. I think you said we get ~450-500 “lump sum” dust from our time leveling, so like most of us are living through it’s just too easy to get screwed. And that’s just going after what we want, not any test builds. :joy: :weary:

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