Not saying your average is wrong, saying all it takes is for someone to have below average luck once for the entire evaluation to go out the window from a practical standpoint, which is objectively accurate. Yes, the average still holds but the part we care about, getting the properties we want in a balanced, timely manner, is effectively lost to us as players. We get a lump sum of greens up until a certain point then the supply slows to an infinitesimal trickle. Get pwnt on your first item? GG you’re screwed until they implement a fix. Most of us who’ve got everything leveled feel this, some just earlier than others.
If supply was steady, we’d all come out average in the long haul but since the supply is effectively limited, some of us just hit an asymptote (more figuratively than literally, since the normal model kinda just doesn’t exist for that person anymore in a meaningful way) and can’t do anything without either grinding low book speed runs or waiting dozens of hours to hopefully get lucky in commendation chests for green dust. I’m guessing this describes most of us veterans at this point.
To simplify, knowing it’s going to take you ~50 rolls on average to get what you’re after stops meaning anything once you don’t get dust anymore.