Not only is the system not fast enough, you can spend 2k hours on one character and still not get what you want, it might never happen.
Thats why it would be good to add some guaranteed progress in the form of subsystems that enable you to work towards something guaranteed.
Shouldnt be too easy to get items, but it should be something you know will happen in time if you invest the time into it
A few thousand hours more and it might be even better! Whoever said this game is not rewarding is a malicious liar.
I just think ranged combat and the melee oriented classes (unless theyāre using a shield) probably need some rework for higher difficulties (I did see some recent changes). And while I would say sure some skilled players can beat any difficulty with profane weapons, I am sure a large amount of players it would be the deciding factor (their gear). Having a revolver with only 32 shots, 6 in the chamber, it taking 1 or 2 to take down a rager will matter when 4 are running at you.
Deflector makes ranged enemies much more easily dealt with. Brutal momentum allows the axe to be used in hordes. Infernus can melt armor. There are blessings that I think, theoretically, would make it the difference between success and failure for some players.
Yep, your maths are wrong (at least in the OPā¦ I must admit I havenāt read the whole thread in detail).
I will only recalculate this bitā¦
ā¦ because I donāt know what the probabilities are for different perk or blessing tiers, and they could even depend on weapon base rating which would make things harder (but Iām pretty sure itās not a flat distribution, since tier 4 and 1 seem to appera a lot less often than 3 or 2).
Assuming you are going to upgrade the weapon to Transcendant (orange), you will have 2 perk slots and 2 blessing slots. You will also have an ideal weapon in mind, with 2 preferred perks and 2 preferred blessings. Since you can reroll 1 perk and 1 blessing, all that matters is that in either of the two perk slots you get one of the two ideal perks, and in either of the two blessing slots you get one of the two ideal blessings.
For the perks, then, assuming 20 possible perks for a given weapon, we have two ways to succeed: A) you roll one of the desired perks in the first slot (regardless of the roll on the second slot), which means a 2/20 probability, or B) you donāt roll a desired perk on the first slot (18/20 chance) and you roll a desired perk on the second slot, which is a 2/19 chance (because perks in different slots canāt be the same, so when you make the roll for the second slot there are not 20 possibilities but 19, since you locked one out during the first roll). The total probability of getting one desired perk is then the addition of A+B, so 2/20+18/20*2/19 = 19.5%.
(R1 and R2 are the first and second perk rolls. Green means you get one of the two that you want, red means you donāt, grey means it doesnāt matter.)
A very similar calculation can be done for blessings. If we have a weapon with 13 possible blessings then the chance of getting one of them right is 29.5%.
The general formula to calculate these probabilites, depending on the total number of perks or blessings ānā, can be written as:
If we want the probability to get one perk right and one blessing right, we just need to multiply the two probabilites. So for 20 perks and 13 blessings we get 0.195*0.295 = 5.7%.
In the general case of a weapon with ānā perk and āmā blessing options we get the following table:
I believe most weapons have about 20 perks and 8-10 blessings, so we are looking at percentages on the order of 5% to 15% in most cases. Not as gloomy as it looked at first sight 
But again, this doesnāt take into account perk and blessing tier, or base weapon stats.
Similar argument for curios. Assuming the three perk slots share the same options (which I have some doubts about) and that all options have the same chance of appearing, we get this:
Or, in general, for any number of perks ānā (I donāt know if there are 22 or how manyā¦):
And then multiply by 1/4 because there are 4 possible blessings, so on the order of sub-1% to get a curio with the blessing and perk combination you want (again, disregarding tiers).
TLDR: the conclusions are that calculating the exact probabilites of things happening is hard because we are missing some of the facts; that the probabilities of getting a specific combination of blessings and perks are low; and that, even though they are low, they are not as low as low as the chances of winning the lottery (unless, perhaps, you are trying to get a perfect item with everything maxed out).
I think that is the eventual goal (getting max items), and so far I have been avoiding probabilities of tiers and blessing types (since we canāt really get that objectively) so I would want to see what the odds are of a maximum curio and weapon.
But I do agree that what you say makes sense for the probabilities. I figured I was missing something, I appreciate the details. However, I still think itās not that high because if we assume weāre ok not settling for max tiers itās still not as high.
Itās more:
4/80 perks on (if youāre ok with any tier of a specific perk but thereās still more tiers of other perks you donāt want) or 8/80 if you prefer on the first roll (for either perk)
Assuming 13 blessings (and 4 tiers each) itās 4/52 or 8/52 on first roll.
I think that lowers it from what you mentioned, but not as low as I originally thought.
yeah this was broadly the conclusion i reached when i ran the numbers for curios, which in a sense are rougher (since you have 3 rolls and can only reroll one) but also easier, since the chase stat of the blessing breakpoint (ie, over 77 i think it is for HP) and the first roll can be found in the store. so an item like this i recently bought and leveled:
so as you can probably guess - in the store i see a good blue ie one over the toughness breakpoint and with one good perk. now all i need to roll is 2 options choose one out of 19, and the list of perks i personally want includes snipers so it was worth leveling to max. there is a STRONG correlation between item level and perk level you roll (i would estimate 2 and 4 are equally likely and 1 is almost impossible on most of the curios i roll)
using current curios the odds of rolling a bunch of T4s arenāt amazing (iād eyeball idk 5ish% on any given roll or so when rerolling) but T3 is the most likely outcome. so you can get a curio with almost maximum utility, missing only two tiers of perk over the entire curio. if youāre less picky - when i worked it out i made a list of things i wanted badly, things i didnāt mind and things i didnāt want on the curio and at the time it was 3/8/9 (but some things have been patched since). it did not take an absolute ton of curios to make sets of whatever i wanted, although it took a very suboptimal number of store visits.
sorry i missed this. i really hope i donāt come across as rude or anything but literally none of this is correct, there are four tiers of perks these odds are nowhere near close to anything iāve observed, except possibly at a specific item level (and a fairly low one? T3 rolls much more often than anything else at high stat rolls). how did you come to these figures?
The level of odds of winning the lottery for the person who won lottery after playing a single time is 100%.
Even then they didnāt win any max items.
But here is an idea how to fix the game in the spirit of the DT: we all play high reward lotteries. If RNG is with us, one of us gets enough money to buy Tencent out and, just to be sure, acquire a few more shares. And then the winner gets to dictate the design. I think that this approach to fixing the DT has the highest percentage of success.
Weāll just crowdfund it. And if we get enough everyone just gets a share and we can change it 
would you care to gamble, mate? charity of course. i asked the other day, and you got kinda quiet about it as i recall. again, iāll give you the exact odds you were confident in where you predicted an outcome is 1/4, and iāll run that experiment 100 times - on twitch, streamed for anyone interested - and i predict, as i did then, i will reroll 100x and get it 0 times.
this is exactly the same odds, for your very well informed position, as someone saying ātake a deck of cards, shuffle it, draw a card. if itās a heart, you win. if not, shuffle it back into the deck and draw again. i bet you can do that 100x in a rowā. hell iām giving you money, or the charity of your choosing.
incidentally hereās the bet btw, my friend here must have missed it. if someone offered me those odds with a deck of card why i literally donāt gamble for religious reasons and still think about it. more accurately, iād assume the other person knew something i didnāt and do some investigating. but thatās why iām about to lose some money, iām sure!
all of a sudden really quiet in here, weird. itās like this place is haunted or something you know, with all these bursts of bizarrely confident gibberish followed by long silences as the spirits rest. anyway, iād much rather do this on twitch so you know iām not doing some texas sharpshooting with my data or similar, (and again if someone, oops that kind of doesnāt work, if a person who wonāt be named was confident in their predictions iām always available) but here:
this is observable over any high tier curio, a 78 would roll better and a 76 worse. i have not observed any correlation between the number of perks and tiers of perk blessings, which is not how weapon blessings work so my working theory is perks donāt influence the item level roll.
it is my reasonable assumption, based on a small observed data sample, that the same odds are applied when rolling and rerolling. however, if anyone would like to further put their mouths where my money is iād very gladly set something up with my available green and blue curio pools, all with top tier blessings. on any given curio i get a T1 perk your charity wins 10 dollars, for every T3 mine gets a dollar and every T4 two dollars. i have buh about 5-10 or so available iād be willing to upgrade, go until i draw a T1 or donāt wanna update any more curios. these odds are wild given thereās an equal weighting between T1, T2, T3 and T4 curios, as proven in the OP, so this is a big chance to make some dosh for charity.
I think itās more just trying to ignore you because you just keep saying the same thing over and over.
oh donāt worry, i think thereās only about a 1/681472 chance that anyone is brave enough to take the bet.
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