oh, literally yes. that was the point of the quote you used later - no one ran the odds on extremely rare outcomes until post-launch. t4 blessings in particular are much too rare and as i’ve said they’re nowhere near 1%.
but what they are doing when they do so, and what you are doing, is essentially looking at a probability curve with an extremely long tail, pointing at the absolute farthest point - a combination of rarest outcomes - and then getting a figure. that’s perfect but that’s not what is intended as a routine outcome, it’s supposed to be very unlikely. it’s relatively easy to get a good item, and then extremely difficult to get a perfect item and there’s a diminishing return the further you go.
you can see some genuinely good work on the rough breakdown of the statistical likelihood eventually in this thread (0.048% to roll specific max 1 perk and 1 blessing - #68 by coolcab), particularly on the actual odds of curios. you can also see many people making extremely large exaggerations of the odds including the OP because they don’t fully understand this paradigm, and also people spouting complete and incredibly easily falsified nonsense on the level of “the odds of drawing any card from a deck is 1%, and any queen is .1%” ie confidently quoting odds that are totally, comically incorrect, even if you didn’t have the absolute figures you could verify with a deck or having played with a deck of cards ever in no time at all and getting likes out the wazoo.
okay to be clear a lottery is a collection of rare outcomes that you match somehow. multiplying lottery by lottery is going to leave you with an extremely poor understanding of the odds involved.
the odds of winning a perfect curio, i would estimate, are in this ballpark? ie you need one rare outcome (1/4 to get the curio you want), one very rare outcome (the store odds of getting over the blessing breakpoint), then two rare outcomes (picking at least two of your preferred perks out of three) then two rare outcomes (and they both need to roll T4, heavily influenced by item level).
but that’s not the intended design of the system -the odds of getting a curio with 2/4 perfect outcomes and 2/4 near perfect outcomes is MUCH better, since the system gives the player control over several of these rolls. ie, the player can choose only to pursue good blessings, meaning the first several rolls are mitigated - the store shows you the rarest roll (the blessing) and even shows you the first perk roll. the store odds haven’t changed but the only resource spent is time - it is much cheaper to see these rolls than other ones. as crafting gets more expensive as you go seeing your first rolls are always cheaper than the last one. as such you would predict, and i can demonstrate personally, that players will trend strongly towards and achieve in a reasonable amount of play:
a T5 curio blessing they want, probably but not for sure over the breakpoint depending on their store tolerance
a T4 perk they really want via the reroll
1 or 2 T3 perks that they want or don’t hate, probably 2
1 or 2 T4 perks they either want or don’t hate, probably 0, maybe 1, very rarely 2
i would predict this describes a majority of level 30 curios currently in use. if you polled players with say 50 hours, i would predict (if their item prioritization was curios, if they are engaging with the available systems, if they understand the odds) they will easily meet most if not all of these objectives.
or, the odds of getting a perfect curio are bad, but the odds of getting a nearly perfect curio are nowhere near as bad, and the mechanical difference is minuscule. that’s your diminishing return and that’s the intended design of the system, and was also an intended design of VT2 and most (but assuredly not all) games of this nature.