career level + 150(from 0 to 30) - unused comm chest
361+332+385+413+493+150-568=1566
there are 45 comm hats in the game right now
so in my case, my rng is 2.87356% per chest
and from calculation, i got all comm hats when i played 1300 hrs
ya only thats not how things work, im way past your magical number of hours to gain the hats
and im missing ALOT of them
which does not mean you wont get them faster ( i hope it will happen)
just saying it might not so dont count on it
Yea, it’s completely random. I got all the hats for the elf within a few hours of each other, some even dropped back to back in chests. I’m still missing 9 hats or so and I’m on 1200+ hours. But then again, I might get lucky and get all 9 in only a few hours again.
It’s still pretty nuts that you can put 1000+ hours into a game and not have items that were available since your very first lvl up. The RNG system needs to be reworked. Or at least add a way to work towards cosmetic items. And I don’t mean locking them behind a 100 mission clear like the other hats.
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Someone calculated this about a year ago (can’t find original thread), by taking a substantial sample from multiple players’ results, averaging a number similar to yours.
I think his was 2.4% rate.
You guys have to remember, that might be average. But there are some people with hundreds of hours who haven’t got a single hat yet XD
RNG is a cruel mistress as Hedge put it.
I even tested this with Legend vaults this week and last. Opened 50 last week on Kruber and got 7 reds. Opened 50 this week and got 4. So yea, some times you’re lucky, sometimes you’re not.
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I’m the same as @SmokerT69 - I got a slew of hats very early on, in fact I got my first hat during the Beta when the drop rate was something silly like <1% 
since about 600 hours I haven’t had a single hat drop, although I’ve got all for Sienna I think, and I’m missing the hatless version of Kruber HS.
I don’t play elf scrub so no hats for her XD
I’m on maybe 800+ hours now with 200 hours without a single hat drop. Got myself another couple of hundred dupe red trinkets though…
I hope part of the deeds rework coming this(?) week is a change to the loot drop system. Maybe something a little bit more exciting … like a random electric charge through your headphones instead of dropping a hat , Might liven things up a bit.