It becomes free after awhile so you think they would just let you choose. I have spent 15 minutes straight spamming a perk re roll (I forget what I was going for). It sucks. The audio overlapping is also not the greatest.
Why do you lock stats?
Darktide isnt diablo.
We do not generate a fraction of diablos loot
Jusy Curios… can someone please do the math to have the 3 perks you want with the perfect tiers while having the right blessing of the right tier…
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Blessings you should be able to swap back and forth since it’s just the one ( I am assuming)
But for a single curio at 3 specific max perks is a 1/681472 chance of occurring and 0.000146% chance of occurring. Then you do that 2 more times. So 12 times on each character… Again assuming you don’t want to trial and experiment… Or patches change it so you want different rolls now.
no, it isn’t? sorry bud i challenged this last night but your method neither matches observable results nor is methodologically coherent. it would be somewhere between very difficult and impossible to calculate this, i could probably give you an estimate of the kind of work you’d need to find an actual number to prove this, and the assumptions you’d need to make to test at all. but i can say with near absolute confidence this figure is totally incorrect.
it is very good to try and reverse these odds and i really quite genuinely encourage it, they are terrible. they most assuredly are not 1/681472 to roll any curio and get 3 specific T4 perks. i suspect extremely strongly they are nowhere near that, possible for the worse but i think it very unlikely.
Sure, what are the odds then?
For example lets say you had 3 20 sided dice. Lets say you only want 1,2, and 3 to roll. They can happen in any order on the dice but you can’t have repeats. Your odds, on one die are 1/20 (5%). Now if you want to know 1/20 for a specific combination of 3 thats 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20. 1/20 to the power of 3. 1/8000 which is 0.0125%.
Now curios have 22 types of perks all with 4 tiers. Which means 88 possibilities on one slot out of the 4 (but since you can re roll one we are only focusing on 3). So that means you’re looking for 1 out of 88 possibilities. Like rolling an 88 sided die. 1/88 to the power of 3 means 1/681472. And that’s for one MAX curio, as that was what the question was MAX tiers with 3 specific, non repeating perks.
It’s been awhile since I have done combinations and permutations but unless you want to offer alternative math there’s not much point in saying personal experience differs.
to answer only the question you answered - ie, ignore the first roll, type of curio, ignore the second and much more difficult roll, roll over the breakpoint for maximum blessing utility, you would need to reasonably demonstrate the following:
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that all perks are equally likely to roll
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the oddss of rolling a T4 perk, or at least a reasonable estimate.
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estimate the correlation between item level and perk tier rerolling. the correlation is both known and confirmed it’s just an unknown likelihood.
i would strongly suggest you go find the person who made a perk rerolling tool and ask very nicely if they can collect all the rolls they get and dump them into a CSV or something, then leave the program rerolling overnight on a series of curio, say 65, 70, 75, 80 to get a very large sample size. assumption one - the odds in perk rerolling match all the other perk roll odds in the game, imo reasonable but not verifiable without doing a similar gigantic sample of the store over time. some people have done small samples of this already iirc.
this will give you enough statistical data to answer questions one and two, this is above my paygrade statistically i would pass it off to smarter people here but a large enough sample you should be able to answer with reasonable confidence if perks are true random and some detection of the likelihood of rolling a P4 relative to item level and an eyeball of T4 rolling on any given roll. i would love to read this analysis, it would answer a lot of questions i have about the game.
okay! you now have a rough estimate of the actual odds. then you would calculate the odds for getting two perks you want, not three as you’ve done - you can reroll one. at this point you also most likely could tell me with confidence the range of clicks i would need to do to get my final perk, which would be neat. you would need to calculate it on a basis that understands your choices are mutually exclusive - ie, you can’t get stamina regen three times, you need to roll 2 of your 3 desired perks out of 20 in 3 rolls. you would need to understand that while T4 is a rare outcome (and the odds thereof) but also that T2 is also a rare outcome, and T1 is a vanishingly rare outcome on a high level item.
you would integrate your findings on perk tier odds ie how likely any roll has a T4 perk on it and you would get a number radically unlike 1/681472, which i hope i have demonstrated why is very unlikely to be the figure. i suspect it’s better, it is entirely possible it is worse, this is what i would need to do to prove it.
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I am not talking of blessings on curios. Only perks. And sure, tiers of perks can be harder to get depending on the rarity of the curio but that would just make the roll even harder to achieve. For simplicity I am assuming they all have an equal chance, which still is nigh impossible. We can argue over the degree of impossibility.
The issue is if you want to get high tier 4’s and we assume they have a better chance of rolling on higher quality curios, you still have to find a curio embedded with the stats and roll them and purple and gold curios are rare and locked behind a rare resource. Grey, blue, and green curios exist but probably have a low chance of rolling a tier 4 perks compared to other tiers.
I don’t think the odds increase at all with what you’re saying.
well they definitely observably have some correlation between item level and the perks you roll, you can demonstrate that trivially (go find your lowest level curio and reroll a bunch, go find your highest level curio and reroll a bunch, observe). again sorry but i’m not saying it’s more likely or necessary less likely, just that the model you’ve developed very poorly correlates to observation and reasonable assumptions derived from observation. that’s what i meant by sanity check - if it doesn’t match the conditions, repeatedly, you should be looking at your model.
the simplification you’ve made on perk tiers is kind of the original sin for this reason. you want a rare outcome but you don’t have the weighing and haven’t made an estimate of weighing, which means your T1 likelihoods are equal to your T4 likelihoods. T1s almost never roll on relevant items, T3 is much more likely than anything else, i would gueeeeess T2 and T4 are roughly equidistant in probability ie they both seem to roll as often as a rare outcome but that’s pulling out of my butt. most of the outcomes will produce T3s from observation by a wide margin. you need to choose 2 outcomes out of 20 over 3 rolls and they both need the rare perk outcome to achieve your objective.
(i have not casually observed a strong or even weak correlation when upgrading curios and perk level, but i haven’t done any formal observation. i would say if it exists it definitely seems much less strong than the effect on blessings tho.)
but the blessing part also needs mention because again it’s an entirely different set of odds to the perk (ie, 1/4 to get the type you want, god knows/search me store odds to roll above your utility breakpoint). roughest odds are there but then you get the additional complication that the store as is lets you look at up to first two rolls (this is why 100% of my good curios are store bought) before you expend resources, so you would need to model the relative cost, required frequency of store checking and as such time cost, ugh it would get VERY messy if even possible.
i again do not know the odds but my point is i can say with reasonable confidence your model almost certainly does not describe them accurately. so taking the model and going, less likely or more likely is kind of arbitrary? you totally could if you wanted to answer these questions with reasonable confidence but you absolutely cannot using the tools and estimate you have applied. i do not pretend my suggestion is the only way of doing it, sure there are cleverer and more efficient routes or flaws in my method, but i think it is what it would take to answer the question with any kind of accuracy, short of a leak at fatshark or hacking or something.
So my point is me doing them all equal is actually doing them a favour in terms of the roll. Tier 4’s are the rarest. Purple and orange that may roll tier 3’s and 4’s more are the rarest item type. I don’t see any way this increases the over all chances, only lowers them.
Tier 1’s DO roll significantly on greens and blues.
Again, if you think Tier 4’s are THAT common, I can’t really say anything with out exact numbers, but I don’t think so from 250 hours of playing.
okay, lets test your hypothesis that T1 is anywhere near as likely T4. please go and count your total T1 perks in your entire curio inventory. i can tell you - for me, over 29 curios i have 2, with a maximum blessing level of 40. now the player will avoid T1 perks, so to really prove this you would go and test, as i have outlined, and tell me with confidence, but this is a quick and dirty proxy. check the stores too at the same time, that should increase your sample a bit.
it is not doing them any kind of favour. it’s assuming an almost impossible outcome (T1) happens as often as a very rare outcome (T2), happens as often as an overwhelmingly likely and excessively common outcome (T3) happens as often as a very rare outcome (T4).
I can’t do that since I uninstalled the game when I read the notes about locking blessings. But based on what I see to get an accurate count we will need roughly 600,000+ curios inventoried of various rarities to get accurate information 
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nah, to demonstrate it you’d need a small but robust sample size. the method i outlined would give you good data and, with the assumptions outlined allow you to accurately model it. get a friend who still has it installed to do it.
but it frankly doesn’t seem like that’s what you want, you just don’t feel the odds are fair and are combining poorly reasoned assumptions and untrue things to get a big number up to back up that feeling. the odds do suck, but your model is nothing more than that. if you wanna work them out i’ll happily support as i have done, it’s entirely doable and i’d love to know. but please don’t talk definitively about the odds if you don’t want to do the work, or at least make your methods more rational before making definitive statements, please.
I disagree. I just don’t feel like filling out spread sheets to see how unfair something is. Not the biggest fan. We will see soon enough. Next week right?
Don’t have any friends left. The 5 I convinced to buy it uninstalled before me or uninstalled the same time I did.
Yes the V1 system of modifying gear was superior to V2
Until you realize:
1.you get ONE item per run, ZERO items after a failed run (unlike in V2 where you get a chest after level up, which doesnt happen after all runs but its something)
2. key system to buy reds was also RNG because the red on the post was randomly generated - yay 0 agency there
3. combining items into a same one of higher rarity - cool we get ONE item per run which is also random so getting 5 swords is possible but RNG heavy
V2 system had VERY little actual weapon customisation, I got my first red weapon there after 300 hours (some 250 of that was Legend full runs)
Nothing felt shittier than rolling a 5% crit and some throw away stat like bonus to zerkers.
If that was darktide I could reroll the useless one but here I needed to reroll both
Not to mention breakpoints was something only accessible with HUNDREDS of dust (without a red weapon going for breakpoints is …just no) mods and a excel spreadsheet in next window
People at this point are hating at DT just for the sake of it and its sad lol. DT system after this patch is just as bad as V1 or V2 but in different areas. And you are deluding yourself if you think it was somehow better in the past.
Yes I WOULD LOVE DRG system where I obtain a weapon and then upgrade a modify it.
But weapons in DRG have very little ‘mechanics’ to them. Dont get me wrong its an excellent game but combat depth is nowhere near DT
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I would have liked a, I call it now “play to progress” system, much better than this unnecessary RNG gambling, which, outside of the extra crafting materials to collect, also has no relation to the gameplay.
It is no fun for me personally, in my 250 hours of gameplay I have reduced everything that even went in the direction of item store and crafting to an absolute minimum, which unfortunately also limits the options you have, but that was better than this frustration that comes with the constant store checks and upgrades, only to not get what you want.
Furthermore, I don’t understand this unnecessarily complex way of getting items… There are 3 different sources to get items (Shop, Melk, Emperors Gift) and then another way to process them (Hadron). What’s the point? Why don’t different systems have different purposes?
Store → get items
Melk → only currency to unlock skins etc.
Emperor Gift → gives different Blessings
Hadron → customization of items / upgrading/combining of Blessings
Weapons would have been simply bought (basic level of a weapon you want to have) leveled by playing, possibly also with a point system to distribute attributes (customizable in Hadron), damage should be fixed though, because everyone would maximize that anyway.
Perks could have been unlocked with small mini-missions (kill X enemies of type Y, kill X number of bosses, play X missions of type Y, etc).
All changes to weapons would then be possible with materials at Hadron, and exactly the changes you want to have when you unlock them.
Blessings would be available via Emperor Gifts (higher level depending on difficulty), which you can also combine at Hadron (number X same Blessings → increase level; number X different Blessings → random Blessing of higher level). So you would still have a RNG factor if people are so into it, but it’s just ONE random element.
→ All this until Malice
If you have a weapon at maximum level, you could have unlocked different weapon skins or attachments on Heresy and Damnation. To then also have an incentive to play high difficulty levels if you are not already doing it anyway. To create even more incentive you could have linked killcounter/prestigelevel to weapons to maybe unlock more color variants later on…
That would be - for me at least - a fairer system, which also offers an incentive to play for a longer period of time and to pursue a defined goal… Furthermore, it may also promote the mixing of players somewhat, because you might not necessarily start with a new weapon without levels immediately on Damnation?! I would have liked something like that at least, preferably with attachments, but that’s another topic.
But anyway, that won’t happen, not anymore, because that would be too much of a rework of the whole system and would probably require a complete wipe of all inventories… and even if I would be willing to do that, I think it would cause a big outcry. This is all a sad story of wishfull thinking that I share in large part with you, but I don’t think it becomes anything more. 
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Enough is enough! I have had it with this awesome RNG in this awesome game!
It’s okay state for beta-early-access NOT-A-MOBILE-FREE-2-PLAY, but we cannot correctly test maps, bugs, weapons and suggest balance fixes, because everything is RNG. There are many terrible places, which we have to investigate to improve overall performance and we cannot even pick map to test it.
Meat Grinder is no go solution, we need to buy proper gun from your RNG shop (HOW?), gain RNG stats, reroll at the cost of “character materials” and test it… why?
Lack of content, cut mechanics, excessive amount of perks and blessings for items, everything to keep people busy farming? Lies and broken promises, but what so ever… profit is all you want in your life, why bother about everything else: proud, principles, responsibilities.
Now you bringing what? MORE RNG ENTER ANY BAD WORD YOU WISH.
As i can see current situation:
Dev team, artists, CM’s are hostages of this situation aswell as customers. Customers are free to leave, unlike dev’s. Customers made all they can to help you improve the game: reviews, vids and all that, but it seems not enough. You need to deploy arguments upon infantile managers, who decided to ruin your reputation and work. Making RNG bad word from mobile market into full-price AAA product? Okey, it’s GW WH40k ip, so AA-product, but soon enough we can call it B-grade no-one cares about. Making your honest work meaningless is their doing, not ours.
So this is up to you to fix it. We are here to help and most people care, that’s why community is angry as hell.
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You do understand that what you are actually asking for is approximation instead of precise numbers and that you would do it in a way not unlike going around the world to get to the building across the street?
- take the the data needed to get precise probability calculations (note that this alone should answer your question #1)
- instead of calculating probabilities, you improvise a tool that will actually create data sets based on that data (you need to know enough probability and statistics and have the data above to have an idea what is/are the minimum data sets)
- perform the statistical analysis based on that generated data to get the results within a reasonable margin of error
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With so many variables, the experience any single person could collect by playing DT 24/7 for years would still be meaningless.
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Never before has there been this many replies and chatter on an announcement post, the vast majority of which is very critical of Fatshark’s decision.
This should indicate to FS to change their mind on this issue, but we can only wait and discuss/argue until FS speaks up again.
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The feedback is the same it has been for a long time, FS has just chosen to ignore it. I am sure they will ignore all of this feedback as well.
In fact, Darktide no longer even has a dedicated Community Manager. Catfish is now also the CM for Vermintide, since Aqshy has been moved to do promotional campaigns and events for Vermintide. Now, they do have VT2 content in the pipeline, but it’s unlikely to be anywhere near meaty enough to require a full time position working on Vermintide promo.
In other words it looks a lot like they will ditch Darktide, and try their gacha mechanics again on an upcoming Vermintide 3, expecting people will have forgotten, and probably somehow expecting their mechanics to be more welcome by the Vermintide crowd.
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