Having attempted to get many people more into Darktide, some of which are fans of VT2, others of which are fans of 40K in general, and others still that are just interested in this type of gameplay, here’s my take on retention:
#1 - The game just presents players with an avalanche of noise and none of it makes sense on first impression.
What do I mean by this:
There’s no clear story line or sequence to the missions to on-board players new to the world. You get thrown into a random mission selector system with mission goals that are opaque and confusing. E.g. infiltrate the mechanical blad-de-blah 456 and turn on/off the cogitator matrix counter-control array 4145 to realign the positioning dilator - like, it’s all just incomprehensible gibberish and only a die hard 40k fan will stand a chance of being captured by it. I had one player, during the mission, ask how to shut up the communication messages that play all mission long because it was just more noise and didn’t make any sense to them anyway. Red flag!
If someone is coming into the game without a care for 40k per se, the mechanical progression system, particularly around items, is just a confusing mess. There are so many terms and ways for weapon stats to interact, and frequently terms/concepts are left completely unexplained or undefined and/or don’t “actually” work the way someone assumes them to work. This leads to immediate frustration and disenfranchisement. Technically the crafting update helps with the progression itself, but it still hinges on players needing to understand the system and terms to engage with it in a meaningful way. Plus it’s just a lot of UI menus to jump through to manage it all. What casual player wants to spend their time managing all of that? Moreover, a new casual player is NOT going to scrounge up information on the internet just to understand the basics of play.
Right off the bat, on both a mechanical and experiential level, there are barriers to entry.
#2 - Player’s aren’t encouraged to, nor properly on-boarded to succeed at, taking on more interesting and challenging difficulties.
The lower difficulties, even for relatively newer / less capable FPS players are a snooze fest. But in order to be even remotely effective at higher difficulties, there are a lot of things one needs to learn and master. There are many things that are great about the combat system (and why anyone is still playing this game), but almost none of it is presented to the player in a way where they can naturally become aware of and learn these things. The game experience oscillates between way too easy and punishingly difficult for new players, making it a hard sell.
#3 - Lack of visual diversity in the map pool coupled with a lack of diversity in gameplay situations, leads to a monotonous experience.
From a new player’s perspective, 20% of the levels are the desert ones, and then everything else looks the same. A 40k fan can look past this easily, but someone coming from VT2 where levels are so distinctive and different from each other makes the experience with DT a let down in comparison. Reusing parts of a given map unfortunately compounds the problem. The Deja Vu effect it creates burns players out on the map pool even faster than it otherwise might if it was just re-using the “tile set” in totally different spaces.
The game would’ve benefited from a DRG style procedural generation system that used more randomized elements in combination with more frequent, uniquely distinct, set pieces for each mission. I will say, I think the missions have been getting better in terms of uniqueness more recently.
#4 - The cosmetic system undermines engagement.
I had new players, not even really liking the game that much, but immediately wanting to buy more premium cosmetics - only to realize the rotating shop meant they couldn’t browse or get excited about things to purchase. What a miserable system. Add to this that the non-premium cosmetic shop is pretty bad (and hasn’t been updated in basically forever), and that there’s no way to slowly earn premium currency. The game kneecaps one of it’s main potential sources of driving retention and engagement right out of the gate.
#5 - Slow pace of development.
Even if Darktide manages to grab people’s attention for a spell, the relatively slow pace of development and content releases, the infrequency with which balance adjustments are made, etc. causes people to get bored with and lose interest in the title. Other games in a similar space offer more substantive, regular updates. It’s not always about the big heavy content updates either - but just welcomed improvements to balance, quality of life, etc. that demonstrates that the developer cares and is listening.
This goes a long way to keep up people’s positive thoughts and impression about the game (and thus be more likely to recommend it). Even if you can look past #1-4, #5 means that many people (even my self with 800-ish hours) are hesitant to recommend the game. My recommendation always come with the caveat that the developer is slow, doesn’t communicate well, and pushes out updates that are often out-of-touch with what the community and the game really needs.
Taking all of these together, Darktide’s retention problems shouldn’t be surprising. Sure, it’s a “niche” game, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t be wildly popular - especially given the 40k IP attached to the game. DRG and Hell Divers both have their own non-mainstreamed IPs and have been significantly more successful at growing a player base overtime.