[Ripper Gun Mk VI | Blessing Cavalcade] Critical hits calculated incorrecly

Issue Description:
The blessing Cavalcade which increases Critical Change by 1-4% (depending on blessing level) does not work correctly on the Mk VI Ripper Gun.

This also affects Ripper Gun Mk II and Mk V non-braced mode (burst firing), however it works as expected during full auto firing on Mk II and Mk V.

Expected results.
It is expected to see a critical hit every 8th round fired, however my tests show that about every 20th round is a critical hit instead.

  • See my calculated predictions below the title “Data used to calculate the expected results” by expanding “My tests”.

The Ripper Gun Mk VI during braced mode firing has a critical hit occurrence of 1.1/21 rounds or 4.92% from my tests, instead of expected 1/8 rounds or 12.5%.
And during non-braced fire the Ripper Gun Mk VI has a critical hit occurrence of 1.7/21 (7.92%) instead of expected 1/8 rounds (12.5%).


Steps to Reproduce:

Test case - Braced Mode

  1. Enter Psychadium as the Ogryn Skullbreaker
  2. Equip a Foe-Rend Mk VI Ripper Gun that has the blessing Cavalcade III
  3. Brace the gun and continuously shoot a target untill the magazine is spent, repeat 10 times.
    3.1. Make sure that a the target is allways hit by each burst.
    3.2. Note that each burst fires three times, and if a critical hit occurs all three shots are counted as critical hits.
  4. Write down the amount of critical hits and use Equation-1 to calculate the critical hit procentage from each test.
  5. Repeat step 3 to 4 several times to collect data points and use Equation-2 to get a normalized critical hit chance for the test case.
  6. Use Equation-3 and compare the result to the result to the predicted outcome.

Test case - Non-braced Mode

  1. Repeat step 1 to 6 from Test case - Braced Mode but not in braced mode.
  2. Compare the results from both test cases.

Platform:
[Steam/PC]

Player ID:
[76561198005085980/Steam Profile URL/Oxonium ¨,'.¨]

Approx. Time of Issue & Timezone:
[04/16/2023, 02:22PM] [CET]

Reproduction Rate:
Constant (100%)

Upload Supporting Evidence:
Braced:


Non-Braced:

Also see the results from my tests by expanding “My tests”.

Upload Console Log & darktide_launcher.log:
console-2023-04-16-11.11.05-8c79e7ac-490d-48a8-99df-9daf0c1d8350.log (86.1 KB)
darktide_launcher.log (853.8 KB)


My tests

Equations used to calculate the effective critical hit chance from my tests

Ms = Magazine size
Mu = Total magazines used
Tr = Testrun
Ch = Critical hits counted
CS = Cavalcade stack

Equation-1: Calculate testrun critical hit chance
(Ch/Ms1 + Ch/Ms2 + Ch/Ms3 + … + Ch/Msx)/Mu

Equation-2: removed for redundancy

Equation-3: Calculate critical hit chance by growth rate
(CS0 + CS1 +CS2 + CS3 + CS4 + C5)/(Points of data in numerator)


Data used to calculate the expected results

Base critical hit chance = 0.05 or 5%.
Source: Ogryn Skullbreaker Class Overview in Darktide - Darktide WH40k - Games Lantern

On a Ripper Gun without the +X% Critical hit chance Perk, we have the following data points:
a0 = 0.05 (base critical hit chance),
Cavalcade 1st stack: a1 = a0+0.03 = 0.08 = 8%
Cavalcade 2nd stack: a2 = a0+0.06 = 0.11 = 11%
Cavalcade 3rd stack: a3 = a0+0.09 = 0.14 = 14%
Cavalcade 4th stack: a4 = a0+0.12 = 0.17 = 17%
Cavalcade 5th stack: a5 = a0+0.15 = 0.22 = 22%

I calculated the mean Critical hit chance of the magazine clip by using the datapoints a1, a2… a5 in a critical hit % growth factor calculation.

Magazine clip mean critical hit procentage:
Equation-3 = (a0+a1+a2+a3+a4+a5)/6
Equation-3 = 0.125
0.125*100 = 12.5%

This would mean that no matter how large the magazine size is on the test wepaon, every magazine has 12.5% chance that a critical hit will occurr (1/8 rounds).

However, because the Mk VI Ripper Gun has a three round burst fire in braced mode, 12.5% is effectivly three times less likely to happen.

Predicted critical hit chance of braced mode:
Prediction of braced mode = 12.5%/3
Prediction of braced mode = 4.166%

And in non-braced mode, the Mk VI has a two round burst fire, so the 12.5% mean critical hit chance is effectivle halved.

Predicted critical hit chance of non-braced mode:
Prediction of non-braced mode = 12.5%/2
Prediction of non-braced mode = 6.25%

These calculations are my “predictions” i use when i’m calculating the effective critical hit chance in my tests.


Results from my tests

Test case - Braced mode:
I count the critical hit occurrences and divide them by the magazine clip size. I repeat this test ten times and use Equation-1 to get my result.

  • Testrun-1 result = 0.0428
  • Testrun-2 result = 0.0571
  • Testrun-3 result = 0.0476

Equation-1 give us the mean critical hit chance across these three testruns.
Equation-1 = (Testrun-1 + Testrun-2 + Testrun-3)/3
Equation-1 = (0.0428 + 0.0571 + 0.0476)/3
Equation-1 = 0.0492
0.0492*100 = 4.92%

Test case - Non-braced mode:
Again, i count the critical hit occurrences and divide them by the magazine clip size. I repeat this test ten times and use Equation-1 to get my result.

  • Testrun-1 result = 0.0801
  • Testrun-2 result = 0.0714
  • Testrun-3 result = 0.0714

Equation-1 gives us the mean critical hit chance across these three testruns.
Equation-1 = (Testrun-1 + Testrun-2 + Testrun-3)/3
Equation-1 = (0.0801 + 0.0714 + 0.0714)/3
Equation-1 = 0.0746
0.0746*100 = 7.46%


Analysis of the results from the Test cases

Test case - Braced mode.

The results from this test case on (Test case - Braced mode., Testrun-1, Testrun-2, Testrun-3) are very close to the predicted critical hit chance in braced mode.
Expected = 12.5%
Corrected prediction = 4.17%
Actual results = 4.92%
Deviation = 0.75%

With a deviation of not even one procent, it implies that the assumptions i made in when i calculated the predicted results are correct.

So the ripper gun patterns that has a burst fire in braced mode will be affected by the way critical hits are calculated.
Which means that this should not affect the ripper gun patterns that has fully automatic firing during braced mode.

Test case - Non-braced mode.

The results from this test case on (Test case - Non-braced mode., Testrun-1, Testrun-2, Testrun-3) are ALSO very close to the predicted critical hit chance in non-braced mode.
Expected = 12.5%
Corrected prediction = 6.25%
Actual results = 7.46%
Deviation = 1.21%

The deviation of just above one procent is a larger deviation than that from Braced Mode, however it is such a small deviation that it is still a very strong implication that my prediction is theoretically accurate.

These results from both Braced Mode as well as Non-Brace Mode when put “back to back” with the predictions tells the story. That critical hits are indeed negativly affected by burst fire.

Three round bursts are dividing the theoretical critical hit by 3 and two round bursts are dividing the theoretical critical hit by 2.

This should not be the case, as it is confusing and also misleading the DT community of what to expect from weapon stats.


Suggestion

Because critical hit is calculated for each burst, the negative effect it has on effective critical hit is very substansial.
As you can see in “My tests” if you expand that and read it, the total critical hit chance for each magazine with Cavalcade stacking from 0 to 5 is 12.5%.

However!
Because critical hits are calculated as they are at the moment, this critical hit chance is affected by the amounts of rounds in a burst fire.

Is the burst fire containing three rounds?
Well, thats 12.5/3 = 4.166%

Is the burst fire containing two rounds?
Well, thats 12.5/2 = 6.25%

  • Hint: Compare the predicted results to results from my tests.

My suggestion / idea of how one could simplify this.
Call the critical hit chance function/method/event/… for each time the weapon fires.
In this way you will have an easier time making sure that each Blessings, Feats or other functions that are called when a critical hit occurrs is working as intended.
As well as having an easier time working with critical hit calculations in general.

Also!
This way of calculating a critical hit is affecting the blessing Flechette (+X stacks of bleed on critical hit).
It affects it in this way, a three round burst where all three rounds is a critical hit, does not trigger three instances of Flechette bleed stacks.
Three critical hits will apply only one instance of Flechette bleed stacks.
I.e. Flechette II +8 bleed stacks on critical hit.

Flechette works as intended for each critical hit on Mk II and Mk V for example, but not on Mk VI because it has burst fire.

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