Ranald!!! Kruber Reds

So one for the maths people out there

Whats the chances of pulling 15 melee reds without seeing a single ranged red?

I worked out that no ranged from 15 reds is about 3.5%. But I haven’t kept track of how many jewelleries I’ve pulled, getting a little frustrated now!

well there’s no bad luck protection so it is… literally… pot luck. Every roll is a brand new roll.

It took me 2k hours to get a red greatsword skin after countless dozens of Bogenhafen Banger.

Someone did a very old test opening a thousand chests and got something like a 20% chance of getting a red with an Emp Vault(can’t remember exact %age as it is old). The chances of getting a red ranged are therefore miniscule diminishing returns. 3% across all chest opened might be vaguely there but it’s still - of course- complete RNG.

Hm…i might be going about this all wrong but here is my thought process, if we are excluding jewelry from any calculation, then we have 15 melee weapons to 4 ranged ones as possible reds. To figure the chance of a single ranged when getting a red we simply note that 4 outa 19 options are ranged, in percentage that´s 4/19 ~ 0.21 =21% to get a ranged one each time you get a red weapon.

That in turn means you got a 79% chance of a melee weapon each time you score a red weapon with krub.

So how likely are 15 melee weapons in a row? I have kinda forgotten this stuff but as @Argonaut14 mentioned there is no system for getting something different from your last roll and every roll is considered a fresh one. Which if i am not mistaken that means you can calculate the chances of 15 melee rolls in a row by simply multiplying the probability of a repeated case with itself once for each time you do it.

Because i am lazy i will state that the chance for a melee roll is 80%, or 8/10, and so to figure out the probability for 15 in a row you just take that 80% in fractional form, 8/10, and multiply that by itself 15 times.

8/10 ^15 = 0.035 = 3.5%

ehm…and this i think should mean that the chances of you pulling 15 melee reds in a row is 3.5%? Which in turn would mean that getting a ranged one somewhere along the way is the remaining % to hit 100 which is 96.5…

I may have forgotten a bit too much of this stuff, it doesnt seem quite right somehow :no_mouth:

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