I don’t believe that to be true. I hope in a few months we will have someone who is actually good at statistics and collects enough data to put out a post about actual probabilities to actually have some support for either of us. Until then we can only rely on our own experience and call to other luck or unlucky because the experience differs.
Edit: I mean not getting what you want (specific t4 blessing) after 1k hours is extremely unlikely, not 1% unlikely, more like 1 in 10 million unlikely.
I don’t think it’s that level of unlikely.
Especially for blessings on class items because that drops the instances of it appearing by at least a third (Melk’s, gifts), the pool of class items to shared items is less than one quarter on average, then on top of that an average of 7 blessings and then tiers (it’s still possible to get T2 on oranges, whether by Melk’s, consecrate or gifts).
Sure, you can buy bases in Brunt’s but you’re still limited to about 4 weapons an hour + 2 from gifts (ignoring gifts because getting the right weapon is pretty low). A thousand hours of playing is 4000 weapons, of which you have to upgrade them to orange to try to roll a T4. You get enough mats to fully consecrate a grey every 2 or so games, meaning you only upgrade about 2000-3000 items in that time.
Of course this is if you’re targeting a single blessing on a single weapon
Without any firm data on the blessing appearance rates (it’s mostly assumed the blessings are even, it’s the tiers that have different rarities and the rare ones are only rare because they only appear at T4, which means the pool of T4 blessings increases) the probabilities are mostly conjecture, but even looking at the hard numbers of item acquisition it’s a slog to go through… for a single T4 Blessing on a specific weapon.
Because it’s RNG with no mitigation it’s still possible for it to swing from someone getting that blessing immediately to someone not getting it for even a thousand hours… especially if Fatshark has tuned the itemisation for at least 1000 hours based on some conjecture from some surveys they ran and their reaction at people playing VT2 for 1000s of hours.
TL;DR: farming a specific T4 Blessing is also filled with layers and layers of RNG, you never make any meaningful progression towards farming since it’s all RNG. The chance is even lower with human sized class specific weapons.
The reason I rail so hard on these kind of systems is that I’ve lived through some really bad unlucky streaks in games. Final Fantasy 14; had to hunt down 12 items each with a 3% drop rate from dynamic quests, farming those items don’t get you anything else, no xp (you’re already at max level at the time), no other drops (special dynamic quest mobs), on a good day you can do about 10 of them an hour and still took me over 300 hours of straight playing (over 3 months or so) when the average time according to the devs should have been about 20 hours. That’s what happens when you have unmitigated RNG. They’re unsatisfying and give you the sense you wasted your time when the numbers don’t roll up the right way.
With your numbers, it sounds pretty unlikely to not get one. 2-3000 upgrades + chance for emperor + who knows how many days of melk… I know your numbers are inflated, but still.
That’s my problem. Do you have a specific chance you feel is pretty close to actual value? For chase t4 to appear.
At least to get some positivity I think that class-specific items should be given some more weight, I think you might have already seen me write this on another thread. Guaranteed appearance in the shop and weight by Type instead of MK might be a good change so class weapons can be acquired similarly to shared weapons (without the 3x roll in melk and such of course). I think that class weapons being harder to get isn’t that big of an issue in itself, but since those weapons are usually undertuned and/or high-entry weapons makes the issues stack, making the twice as hard to get.
Farming FF14 sounds good, try a holy grail run in D2. 
Please don’t go into this here (I laid out my arguments pretty deeply on another thread), but I think chase blessings are treats and not something you should think will get guaranteed after 30 games.
But how boring is it to just go for the one weapon forever?
It wasn’t chase in FF14, it was base weapon progression at that point of the game. Kinda like how lights worked in Destiny 1?
This game would and is suffering for chase. It doesn’t have the variety of content to change things up, it doesn’t have any slow or steady deterministic item progression to act as an alternative to or supplement the RNG. It shouldn’t be compared to Destiny 2 either in that it’s barely a looter shooter (at best it’s a shooter with loot) and why are base parts of the itemisation still not reliably acquirable even after 500 hours? There’s retention, but then there’s retention.
The main gist is that Darktide doesn’t feel like an MMO nor a looter shooter, why does it have RNG systems that are worse than either?
The itemisation systems are unengaging, abstracted from the gameplay too much in my opinion with the generic currencies and materials, and If you’re unlucky, it feels horrible and a waste of time because those materials are gone for nothing, and that that overall feeling is dragging down Darktide more than the fun of gameplay (which again, is tempered by the lack of variety in content plus the questionable design and user experience choices done to access said content) can keep it buoyed up for a lot of people.
Come on now, this is the largest strawman I’ve seen on this topic. You are also dodging my point like they are out to get you.
What I don’t want is a non-progression system where I’m sitting there after a few hundred hours with nothing to look forward to. I take this system with a pretty good chance to even get chase blessings and pretty hard chance to get perfect items and say good. I don’t want everything unlocked, it’s fine.
Do you think it’s boring to go for a weapon forever? Don’t do it then, but also don’t say stuff like 1000 hours and you still have a reasonable chance to not get it. Because you probably can, unless you have some legendary bad luck that deserves a story.
I would actually engage with you on this topic, but everyone I talked to on this forum who says stuff like this and keeps replying to me comes from a place of a 100-300h progression tops. If you are in that group any critique of “how bad the loot system feels” rings super hallow since you want it basically all gone anyway, not make it feel better.
Yeah, I get you, and I guess that’s where we fundamentally disagree.
I don’t think Darktide needs an endless grind.
I played Vermintide 2 for about 800 hours more after getting reds or red-equivalent oranges (after about 200 or so hours) for all careers, part of that is the satisfaction of having the top items and another part and probably the main part is that can ignore the itemisation completely thereafter, or at least not struggle with it continuously and I can build a new weapon to try a new build within 15 minutes or so.
We’re just coming at this from two completely different directions. You see it as chasing a carrot forever. I see it as Fatshark deliberately designing the system (despite the similarities) so that I will never reach that same point I did in Vermintide 2 in Darktide.
It still doesn’t excuse the horribly user unfriendliness, removal of player agency and arbitary design decisions Darktide has like locks and siloing and perk rerolling and the sheer frustratingly dense walls of RNG. Even trying to build a good alternative weapon has so many hoops to jump through that it sours the experience dramatically.
It’s good to know, most usually disregard this, or just call people who share my sentiment crazy or something.
I think the current system needs some improvements, QoL, more agency, and friendliness. It’s just hard to argue about that (or support these sentiments) while I feel like these arguments usually (don’t take this personally) come from a point of no progression as a foil to hide that actually they want to move DT in the VT2 direction with no progression which for me was the worst of both worlds.
I’m getting pretty tired of these conversations again so I’ll check in sometime later.
So assuming the same format of weapons:
Stats
Perk
Perk
Blessing
Blessing
For stats:
Tighten the base rating of acquired items more dramatically to around 350, at that level no individual stat will roll below 50%.
Have a system (mission type completions based on the stat perhaps) that allows you to improve one stat up to the maximum of 80% over time, that way you can still have an ok weapon but with the opportunity to polish its strength or shore up a weakness.
For perks:
The obvious one is for rerolling to just do the total cost in one go and allow you to select the perk you want.
If the lock has to remain, if the locked perk is lower than T4, you can either run certain missions or maybe boss materials so you can eventually upgrade it.
Blessings:
Locks: Again, allow the upgrade of locked blessings (only when consecrated to orange)
The main issue is still blessing acquisition but it’ll be partially solved with the ability to upgrade locked blessings.
Maybe give mission types rolling blessing drop tables where a set of blessings have a higher chance of appearing in the Emperor’s gift.
So overall items will be looked at more “I can work on that,” instead of majority “It’s junk.”
Most of these suggestions would allow players to have an more focused objective that then ties into mission gameplay more outside of grinding materials and currency anywhere. You’ll be making small but significant incremental upgrades to weapons you want to upgrade. You’re always working towards something so instead of a single big or nothing roll failing and leaving you with nothing you still have consolation progress or alternatives.
RNG would still complement these more deterministic alternatives but it shifts the perception from “if” you will get the thing to “when” will you get the thing.
Getting a perfect weapon will still take time, maybe a bit shorter or longer than expected because there’s still some RNG but you know there’s that light at the end of the tunnel eventually.
But a lot of these suggestions would complement more map zones, more mission types, more map events, more bosses, and unfortunately to a degree rely more on a mission selection system where you can choose what maps you want.
Come on over to Vermintide 2, show Fatshark what you think of this game by letting it die like it deserves.
RNG fiesta again.
Went from gambling on a good upgrade, to waiting for Melk to have the traits appear…
To gambling that the weapon traits are good enough on your craft so you can discard one.
RNG fiesta from start to finish.
Fatshark never learns.
In general I feel like getting T3 blessings isn’t too unreasonable and in a lot of cases the T4 version is kinda overkill anyway.
Unfortunately however we have blessings that only exist at T4 and in those instances yeah it really is getting pretty unreasonable how hard they can be to get. Ideally I would like to see another method of building towards T4 blessings be present to finish off your blessing library. It can be time consuming but it needs to be a fairly linear path rather than more casino nonsense so that it can act as a form of RNG mitigation.
I’ve been wondering why they just don’t have a system that requires you sacrificing weapons to strengthen blessings
2x T1 = T2
2x T2 = T3
2x T3 = T4
And then once you have it, you keep it.
There is SO MUCH they could learn from Nioh’s crafting… really.
I think going up to orange to get a blessing is the worst when it come to ressources. Up to now when looking for blessing I just get a bunch of grey/green weapon without caring for their level then get to blue and sell if it’s not the good element.
that force you to use your only blessing reroll to set this blessing but at least you aren’t as frustrated.
And as other have said I try to mostly hope for the best in melk and market rather than spending hundred of thousands on brunt armory.
Current crafting is infuriating if you want to use it as it seems to be design for so best we can sadly do is try to make the best of it for now.
Dear Nish,
It’s not just that you’re dismissing other peoples, or even one persons bad luck (which as system are concerned must always be a concern in any kind of fair play scenario, but anyhow, back to this later), you’re also somehow unseen by yourself moving the goal posts, A LOT. I know we’re talking about metaphors of random scenarios in life vs. random luck in a computer game, so we’re pretty far out already, but c’mon.
Bricks and cars can kill, yet we still go out? Yes, we go out since to exist and survive we must. Random bad luck to enjoy a product you paid for being a thing in computer game is hardly a great metaphor to that.
However as I can sort of accept the bricks and cars as being unlikely but yet credible, being hit by lightning twice, to which you jumped on your own immediately after I replied bricks and cars happen all the time is, I think it’s pretty damn reasonable to assume MUCH MORE EFFING UNLIKELY. So from using not so great metaphors to jumping to whole other degree of unlikeliness kind of metaphor is pretty weak man.
You do seem to have made reasonable comments and arguments after that, and I have no wish to argue against other peoples personal views and who said what and meant what, rather I would love a discussion about the issue I’m trying to point out:
The game systems as they are offer no protection against bad luck. Hence, with the 100k+ players that are shown in steamcharts peak statistics, there is inherently going to be one player who will have the worst luck. Now as I’ve played about 110 hours + 20 in betas and I’ve yet to see an actually GREAT weapon, but some good, I’m pretty sure being that number #1 unluckiest must effing suck. BALLS.
If this would’ve been a product made just one country over from Sweden, in my country Finland, I would certainly have organized a group filing in the customer protection agency. Not that the filing is a court case or anything, but it’s a great way to get the press. Aaaanyhow… any swedes disappointed here?
That’s my strat.
I think you misunderstood my “hit by lightning twice” metaphor. It wasn’t moving the goalpost it was a metaphor to show that even the most unlikely events become very likely if there are enough events, it shows that yes without “luck protection” or the pity system if you like, there will be a few unlucky ones that get the short end of the stick.
If you like to discuss the issue you pointed to we can, but good/great weapons and alike are very personal things. Not knowing how much you played after the “drop buff” or what are your tactics (what you do) to acquire weapons in-game makes it hard to me to go into anything about it. There are a lot of ways to interact with the current system and doing it in a “good” or “bad” way changes the outcomes drastically.
If you just want to concentrate on the #1 unluckiest player(s), fine, but we are in falling bricks territory with that one.
The next bit is a bit outside of the conversation, but I couldn’t help myself and had to reply to it.
This sound extremely wild to me. I hope you are referring to the burning s*** show that was the release because, in the context of this conversation, I can’t believe you would be able to file an official complaint over loot drops in a game.
Then again if it’s only to get the press then fine, but even the most adamant supporters of “no rng in DT” agree with me that categories of more layers of RNG and unobtainium items are pretty common in some other game genres. I don’t think apart from scaring away players from trying the game much could have been achieved by this.
I.e. upgrading to blue instead of upgrading all the way to orange?
I’ve seen it mentioned plenty that you need to apply the right “strategy”, but I don’t think I’ve seen much more than what can be summarized by that one line, except for those talking about 3rd party mods or tools, which is definitely besides the point.
I can’t summarise it in one line, but I give you two examples.
These are tactics for getting more good/great weapons, of course, perfect ones are more rng based and basically unobtainium (and that’s fine with me).
Makes sense. It may drastically reduce your mat consumption. Sounds like it’s very much in line with not upgrading every weapon fully though (don’t spend mats unnecessarily).
So, basically “check the store and buy stuff if you can make good use of them”. I guess it makes a drastic difference if you’re actively spending resources on weapons that you can’t make anything of, or if you avoid that practise.
In all seriousness though, I really wouldn’t call that a lot of ways to interact with the crafting system in order to get a drastically different outcomes. Sure, using common sense is very “good” compared to not using common sense (“bad”). I definitely would not call it that in the context of tactics used when acquiring weapons in-game.
I wouldn’t call it common sense, since based on some of the “I can’t find good weapons” posts people aren’t really using them. They look at some 370+ green or gray items maybe and only the ones they might want to use in the near future. Maybe it’s just me who has more experience with similar systems, but reading this forum things that I maybe would have considered “common sense” before like you just did doesn’t really apply here.
I’ve given you 2 examples, I would call it “bad” to use up resources in a worse way and call it “good” to use them up in an optimal (or less wasteful) way. If tactics don’t describe it fine, you name it. Point is that not disregarding 90% of the potential good items and being less wasteful might bring better results.